Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023 Read more