Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more