Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 13 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 13 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more