Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A low confidence forecast exists for Saturday evening/night, but nocturnal tornado potential remains apparent across the Florida Peninsula. ...FL vicinity... A complex synoptic pattern with much greater-than-normal spread exists across the suite of ensemble and deterministic guidance. The degree of phasing between southern and northern-stream shortwave troughs over the central states is quite varied. Uncertainty also exists with how these features interact with a separate, yet to form, shortwave impulse generated by abundant convection over the eastern Gulf late D2/early D3, within a favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet centered on the Deep South. It is this latter feature which would likely induce cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf vicinity. 00Z ECMWF ensemble members continue to indicate large spread in the degree of cyclone amplification and track prior to 12Z Sunday. Non-NCEP guidance such as the deterministic 00Z ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are closer to the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean and provide the primary basis for the areal delineation of the level 1-MRGL risk for Saturday evening/night. The initial warm-core nature of the leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with the expected strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula. If the bulk of guidance eventually converges to the faster/more amplified cyclone track, a corridor of level 2-SLGT risk would seemingly be needed given the conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup supporting potential for nocturnal tornadoes. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more