Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more