Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool conditions and widespread precipitation ongoing this morning will keep fire-weather conditions minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool conditions and widespread precipitation ongoing this morning will keep fire-weather conditions minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool conditions and widespread precipitation ongoing this morning will keep fire-weather conditions minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool conditions and widespread precipitation ongoing this morning will keep fire-weather conditions minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool conditions and widespread precipitation ongoing this morning will keep fire-weather conditions minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low over northwest OK this morning will eject slowly east-northeastward toward MO by tonight, as an upstream wave digs south-southeastward from southern AB/SK toward SD/NE. A band of rain with embedded convection persists from central TX into central OK, in association with the midlevel low and a reinforcing frontal surge across OK/TX. The band of ascent/rain will spread eastward and southeastward through tonight, with weak buoyancy aloft supporting a continued threat for isolated lightning flashes through tonight (primarily from north TX to southeast TX). Otherwise, some convection and isolated lightning flashes may also occur across south FL/Keys in the persistent easterly flow regime along a residual front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low over northwest OK this morning will eject slowly east-northeastward toward MO by tonight, as an upstream wave digs south-southeastward from southern AB/SK toward SD/NE. A band of rain with embedded convection persists from central TX into central OK, in association with the midlevel low and a reinforcing frontal surge across OK/TX. The band of ascent/rain will spread eastward and southeastward through tonight, with weak buoyancy aloft supporting a continued threat for isolated lightning flashes through tonight (primarily from north TX to southeast TX). Otherwise, some convection and isolated lightning flashes may also occur across south FL/Keys in the persistent easterly flow regime along a residual front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low over northwest OK this morning will eject slowly east-northeastward toward MO by tonight, as an upstream wave digs south-southeastward from southern AB/SK toward SD/NE. A band of rain with embedded convection persists from central TX into central OK, in association with the midlevel low and a reinforcing frontal surge across OK/TX. The band of ascent/rain will spread eastward and southeastward through tonight, with weak buoyancy aloft supporting a continued threat for isolated lightning flashes through tonight (primarily from north TX to southeast TX). Otherwise, some convection and isolated lightning flashes may also occur across south FL/Keys in the persistent easterly flow regime along a residual front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low over northwest OK this morning will eject slowly east-northeastward toward MO by tonight, as an upstream wave digs south-southeastward from southern AB/SK toward SD/NE. A band of rain with embedded convection persists from central TX into central OK, in association with the midlevel low and a reinforcing frontal surge across OK/TX. The band of ascent/rain will spread eastward and southeastward through tonight, with weak buoyancy aloft supporting a continued threat for isolated lightning flashes through tonight (primarily from north TX to southeast TX). Otherwise, some convection and isolated lightning flashes may also occur across south FL/Keys in the persistent easterly flow regime along a residual front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low over northwest OK this morning will eject slowly east-northeastward toward MO by tonight, as an upstream wave digs south-southeastward from southern AB/SK toward SD/NE. A band of rain with embedded convection persists from central TX into central OK, in association with the midlevel low and a reinforcing frontal surge across OK/TX. The band of ascent/rain will spread eastward and southeastward through tonight, with weak buoyancy aloft supporting a continued threat for isolated lightning flashes through tonight (primarily from north TX to southeast TX). Otherwise, some convection and isolated lightning flashes may also occur across south FL/Keys in the persistent easterly flow regime along a residual front. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/15/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to support deep convection in southern New England. A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday. Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to support deep convection in southern New England. A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday. Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to support deep convection in southern New England. A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday. Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to support deep convection in southern New England. A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday. Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to support deep convection in southern New England. A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday. Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more