Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over east-central NM. This mid-level disturbance will move east tonight reaching the eastern part of the TX Panhandle by daybreak. The 00 UTC Amarillo, TX raob showed 300 J/kg MUCAPE due largely to cold 500 mb temperatures (-20 deg C) steepening lapse rates in the mid levels atop a cool/stable boundary layer. A few sporadic bands/clusters of convection will shift east across the southern High Plains this evening/tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are prevalent across the remainder of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over east-central NM. This mid-level disturbance will move east tonight reaching the eastern part of the TX Panhandle by daybreak. The 00 UTC Amarillo, TX raob showed 300 J/kg MUCAPE due largely to cold 500 mb temperatures (-20 deg C) steepening lapse rates in the mid levels atop a cool/stable boundary layer. A few sporadic bands/clusters of convection will shift east across the southern High Plains this evening/tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are prevalent across the remainder of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 12/15/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more