Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more