Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. Read more