Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northeast tonight, as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure from the Ohio Valley southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley will suppress moisture return. The relatively dry and cool airmass associated with the high will make thunderstorms unlikely through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northeast tonight, as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure from the Ohio Valley southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley will suppress moisture return. The relatively dry and cool airmass associated with the high will make thunderstorms unlikely through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/12/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 11 23:48:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 11 23:48:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 Read more