Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more