Severe Storms

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AUS TO 35 N CLL TO 45 SSE CRS TO 35 SE CRS TO 10 SSE TYR TO 35 N TYR. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-041-051-073-183-185-203-225-289-313-347-365-395-401- 419-423-455-471-111440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HOUSTON LEON MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE AUS TO 35 ESE ACT TO 25 E CRS TO 45 ESE DAL. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-041-051-073-161-183-185-203-213-225-287-289-293-313- 331-347-365-395-401-419-423-455-467-471-111340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W AUS TO 15 WSW ACT TO 15 W CRS TO 20 SSE DAL. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-031-041-051-073-145-161-183-185-203-213-225-257- 287-289-293-309-313-331-347-349-365-395-401-419-423-453-455-467- 471-491-111240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KAUFMAN LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRAVIS TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more