Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of south-central TX (especially along the Rio Grande) this afternoon, marginal fuels should limit an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of south-central TX (especially along the Rio Grande) this afternoon, marginal fuels should limit an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of south-central TX (especially along the Rio Grande) this afternoon, marginal fuels should limit an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will cross the southern Plains today with a gradually deepening surface cyclone. This will lead to windy conditions across the southern Plains. The strongest of these winds are expected near the Rio Grande where a more deeply mixed airmass will be present and bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fuels are not supportive for an Elevated delineation. Elsewhere, conditions are too moist/cool for any significant fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N VCT TO 20 W LFK. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-089-199-201-241-291-339-351-373-407-457-471-473-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN COLORADO HARDIN HARRIS JASPER LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALKER WALLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LFK TO 35 ENE SHV TO 25 NNE ELD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-111740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-127- 111740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC403-405-111740- Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UTS TO 25 NNE LFK TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-419-111740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 16 SEVERE TSTM TX 110830Z - 111700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 16 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and East Texas * Effective this Sunday morning from 230 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to progress east-northeastward toward and to the east of the I-35/I-45 corridors through the early morning hours, with the most intense storms remaining capable of large hail and localized strong wind gusts. Additional severe development may occur on an initially (pre-dawn) more isolated basis across east/east-central Texas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Temple TX to 30 miles southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-089-185-199-201-241-291-339-351-373-407-457-471-473-477- 111640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN COLORADO GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111442Z - 111615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should increase this morning as thunderstorms move eastward. New watch issuance is likely soon. DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells have recently strengthened across south-central/southeast TX between Austin/San Antonio and the Houston metro. This convection is located along/very near a surface front, and its general eastward movement should allow it to remain surface based, or very nearly so over the next few hours. Strong southwesterly winds at mid levels will and related 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear will easily support continued updraft organization, including maintenance of ongoing supercell intensity. Steep lapse rates aloft and a rich/moist low-level airmass present along/south of the boundary are already supporting moderate instability, with MLCAPE generally 1500-2000 J/kg. Large hail, some potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter, should be the main severe threat in the short term. But, isolated severe/damaging winds will also be possible in convective downdrafts. The tornado threat is a little more uncertain, but recent VWPs from KHGX show sufficient 0-1 km shear associated with a 30-35 kt southerly low-level jet to support updraft rotation and some risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given that a severe risk should persist beyond the scheduled 17Z expiration of WW 16, additional/new watch issuance is likely soon. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30369646 30889524 30999417 30259404 29749489 29649669 29909652 30369646 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-111640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-111640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC403-405-111640- Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W UTS TO 20 NW LFK TO 35 SW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-347-365-419-455-111640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES PANOLA SHELBY TRINITY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0123 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Texas into southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16... Valid 111240Z - 111515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue through 9-11 AM CST, with hail remaining the primary potential severe hazard. DISCUSSION...An initial area of stronger large-scale ascent appears to be pivoting north of the Red River Valley. However, one persistent strong cell/small cluster of convective development continues to be supported by a focused area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection now spreading across the Tyler, TX toward Shreveport, LA vicinities. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will be maintained, but sustained weakening trends have yet to develop, and it is on track to reach the Shreveport vicinity by 15Z. Otherwise, into the 15-17Z time frame, weaker low-level warm advection appears likely to persist within a corridor north of the upper Texas coastal plain through the Shreveport vicinity, beneath at least weakly difluent high-level low. This may support continuing convective development, with the stronger thunderstorm development perhaps shifting closer to the surface frontal zone, near the Huntsville vicinity. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32069587 32609543 33099443 33429288 32619231 32119346 30709551 30469650 30829711 31349651 32069587 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-111540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-111540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC403-405-111540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 WNW UTS TO 35 NNW LFK TO 30 SSW GGG TO 25 E GGG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123 ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-041-051-185-203-225-347-365-401-419-455-471-111540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON GRIMES HARRISON HOUSTON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0017 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more