Severe Storms

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W TPL TO 15 NNW ACT TO 25 S FTW. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-031-041-051-053-073-099-139-145-161-183-185-203- 213-217-225-251-257-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-419-423-453-455-467-471-491-111140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CHEROKEE CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRAVIS TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15...16... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central into northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...16... Valid 110920Z - 111115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15, 16 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will overspread the Interstates 35 and 45 into 20 corridors of central into northeastern Texas through 5-7 AM CST, with a few embedded stronger storms posing a risk for severe hail. DISCUSSION...As the primary mid-level jet streak (including 70-90 kt around 500 mb) continues to propagate across the Texas Big Bend into the Edwards Plateau through 11-13Z, relatively warm and/or warming lower/mid-tropospheric air appears likely to be maintained above potentially unstable boundary layer air now present across the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal plain. Stronger forcing for ascent and associated convective development probably will remain focused well to the north of the quasi-stationary to slow moving warm frontal zone, now roughly near/north of San Antonio through the College Station and Huntsville vicinities. To the north of the frontal zone, forecast soundings suggest that the cool near-surface layer remains stable with regard to potential for strong downdrafts to reach the surface. Furthermore, lower tropospheric wind fields preceding the convective cluster are rather modest in strength, and there is little indication of strong lower/mid-tropospheric rear-inflow developing, despite the organized character of the elevated convection. So the potential for strong convective wind gusts appears likely to remain low through at least 11-13Z. But elevated instability and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear may continue to support locally strong embedded supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail as convection spreads across the I-35/45 into I-20 corridors of central through northeastern Texas. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32319767 32999536 32169483 31279628 30309824 30309949 30879910 31439826 32319767 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429- 111000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON MILLS REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429- 111000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON MILLS REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429- 111000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON MILLS REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429- 111000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON MILLS REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429- 111000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON MILLS REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 15 SEVERE TSTM TX 110355Z - 111000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 955 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify tonight along a cold front over west-central Texas. These storms will likely pose a risk of large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts as they track east-northeastward across the watch area. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the southern part of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles southwest of Junction TX to 45 miles east northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0121 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 110726Z - 110930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST. This activity may continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities. DISCUSSION...Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend. But a more modest preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z. The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South Plains. North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is not likely to modify much in advance of the convection. However, elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities. Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is forecast to inhibit convective development. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013 31429922 Read more