Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ...Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ...Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 Read more