Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. Ahead of the system, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass in place ahead of the low from southeast Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector should be in the lower to mid 60s F. A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period near the northwestern edge of the moist sector across parts of east Texas. As the airmass destabilizes during the day, additional storms are expected to develop further to the east across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast to be present on Sunday over much of the southeastern U.S. This will help storms organize during the day, with a severe threat likely developing. Supercells associated with isolated large hail will be possible across parts of east Texas and Louisiana on Sunday afternoon, where forecast soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. As a cluster of thunderstorms organizes during the day, embedded supercells and short line segments should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. A tornado threat is also expected to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, with the threat gradually spreading eastward into the central Gulf Coast states by evening. There are a couple of limiting factors for this coming event, which introduce uncertainty concerning the severe threat magnitude. First, the mid-level jet is forecast to remain well to the west of the severe threat area throughout the event. Second, the low-level jet associated with the approaching system, is forecast to remain relative weak. Due to these less-than-ideal factors, will not upgrade from Slight Risk at this time. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. Ahead of the system, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass in place ahead of the low from southeast Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector should be in the lower to mid 60s F. A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period near the northwestern edge of the moist sector across parts of east Texas. As the airmass destabilizes during the day, additional storms are expected to develop further to the east across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast to be present on Sunday over much of the southeastern U.S. This will help storms organize during the day, with a severe threat likely developing. Supercells associated with isolated large hail will be possible across parts of east Texas and Louisiana on Sunday afternoon, where forecast soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. As a cluster of thunderstorms organizes during the day, embedded supercells and short line segments should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. A tornado threat is also expected to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, with the threat gradually spreading eastward into the central Gulf Coast states by evening. There are a couple of limiting factors for this coming event, which introduce uncertainty concerning the severe threat magnitude. First, the mid-level jet is forecast to remain well to the west of the severe threat area throughout the event. Second, the low-level jet associated with the approaching system, is forecast to remain relative weak. Due to these less-than-ideal factors, will not upgrade from Slight Risk at this time. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. Ahead of the system, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass in place ahead of the low from southeast Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector should be in the lower to mid 60s F. A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period near the northwestern edge of the moist sector across parts of east Texas. As the airmass destabilizes during the day, additional storms are expected to develop further to the east across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast to be present on Sunday over much of the southeastern U.S. This will help storms organize during the day, with a severe threat likely developing. Supercells associated with isolated large hail will be possible across parts of east Texas and Louisiana on Sunday afternoon, where forecast soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. As a cluster of thunderstorms organizes during the day, embedded supercells and short line segments should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. A tornado threat is also expected to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, with the threat gradually spreading eastward into the central Gulf Coast states by evening. There are a couple of limiting factors for this coming event, which introduce uncertainty concerning the severe threat magnitude. First, the mid-level jet is forecast to remain well to the west of the severe threat area throughout the event. Second, the low-level jet associated with the approaching system, is forecast to remain relative weak. Due to these less-than-ideal factors, will not upgrade from Slight Risk at this time. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more