Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat are expected across parts of Texas into Louisiana. Some hail may be large across portions of south Texas. ...TX/LA... Dominant upper trough, currently located from the Great Basin, south to the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the end of the period where a 500mb upper low is expected by 11/12z. As this trough shifts east, midlevel height falls will encourage a low-latitude short-wave trough to eject across northern Mexico toward south TX. This lead feature should aid some semblance of a LLJ across coastal TX into LA early, then a secondary LLJ should respond to the primary upper trough over west TX during the overnight hours. Both features will likely be responsible for bouts of convection, some of it potentially severe. Latest guidance suggests the primary surface front will advance into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into southeast NM by 18z, then slowly shift southeast during the overnight hours. Surface dew points probably won't increase much across the warm sector ahead of the wind shift, but lower-mid 60s dew points will be common. Timing of the most robust convection is likely with the aforementioned short waves, modulated by the LLJ. Strong shear supports organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. The first bout of potential supercells is expected across south-central TX by early afternoon, with this activity shifting northeast ahead of the frontal zone toward LA. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across far west TX into the frontal zone draped across the TX South Plains. This should aid buoyancy ahead of the second feature. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates will steepen significantly after 03z, and substantial elevated instability (in excess of 1500 J/kg) will evolve across the Edwards Plateau. Strongly forced convection is expected to develop by late evening across this region and very large hail may accompany the most robust supercells. This activity will spread toward central/south-central TX after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts (20z outlook), regarding the potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms, continue. A weak, deamplifying short-wave trough is ejecting east-northeast across KS early this evening. This feature will advance into the upper Midwest as an 80-90kt 500mb speed max translates into northern IN/OH after midnight. As the short wave moves downstream, LLJ will be drawn into the TN/OH Valley region. This should encourage deep convection to spread across AR toward the lower OH Valley in response to low-level warm advection. One lone supercell has produced up to 2.5" hail over Garland County AR, and this storm is now shifting into the Little Rock area where some hail threat may linger. 00z sounding from LZK exhibited steep 3-6km lapse rates with MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, albeit with strong surface-6km bulk shear. Even so, weakening short wave, and the transitory nature of the LLJ overnight, suggest the greatest severe threat should remain too isolated for a SLGT risk. Toward morning, a secondary LLJ will begin to develop over west TX in response to a strong approaching upper trough. Convective threat should also increase in response to this feature over the Edwards Plateau, but this will not occur until the very end of the period. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts (20z outlook), regarding the potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms, continue. A weak, deamplifying short-wave trough is ejecting east-northeast across KS early this evening. This feature will advance into the upper Midwest as an 80-90kt 500mb speed max translates into northern IN/OH after midnight. As the short wave moves downstream, LLJ will be drawn into the TN/OH Valley region. This should encourage deep convection to spread across AR toward the lower OH Valley in response to low-level warm advection. One lone supercell has produced up to 2.5" hail over Garland County AR, and this storm is now shifting into the Little Rock area where some hail threat may linger. 00z sounding from LZK exhibited steep 3-6km lapse rates with MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, albeit with strong surface-6km bulk shear. Even so, weakening short wave, and the transitory nature of the LLJ overnight, suggest the greatest severe threat should remain too isolated for a SLGT risk. Toward morning, a secondary LLJ will begin to develop over west TX in response to a strong approaching upper trough. Convective threat should also increase in response to this feature over the Edwards Plateau, but this will not occur until the very end of the period. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts (20z outlook), regarding the potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms, continue. A weak, deamplifying short-wave trough is ejecting east-northeast across KS early this evening. This feature will advance into the upper Midwest as an 80-90kt 500mb speed max translates into northern IN/OH after midnight. As the short wave moves downstream, LLJ will be drawn into the TN/OH Valley region. This should encourage deep convection to spread across AR toward the lower OH Valley in response to low-level warm advection. One lone supercell has produced up to 2.5" hail over Garland County AR, and this storm is now shifting into the Little Rock area where some hail threat may linger. 00z sounding from LZK exhibited steep 3-6km lapse rates with MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, albeit with strong surface-6km bulk shear. Even so, weakening short wave, and the transitory nature of the LLJ overnight, suggest the greatest severe threat should remain too isolated for a SLGT risk. Toward morning, a secondary LLJ will begin to develop over west TX in response to a strong approaching upper trough. Convective threat should also increase in response to this feature over the Edwards Plateau, but this will not occur until the very end of the period. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts (20z outlook), regarding the potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms, continue. A weak, deamplifying short-wave trough is ejecting east-northeast across KS early this evening. This feature will advance into the upper Midwest as an 80-90kt 500mb speed max translates into northern IN/OH after midnight. As the short wave moves downstream, LLJ will be drawn into the TN/OH Valley region. This should encourage deep convection to spread across AR toward the lower OH Valley in response to low-level warm advection. One lone supercell has produced up to 2.5" hail over Garland County AR, and this storm is now shifting into the Little Rock area where some hail threat may linger. 00z sounding from LZK exhibited steep 3-6km lapse rates with MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, albeit with strong surface-6km bulk shear. Even so, weakening short wave, and the transitory nature of the LLJ overnight, suggest the greatest severe threat should remain too isolated for a SLGT risk. Toward morning, a secondary LLJ will begin to develop over west TX in response to a strong approaching upper trough. Convective threat should also increase in response to this feature over the Edwards Plateau, but this will not occur until the very end of the period. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 9 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 9 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0115 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...FAR NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...southeast OK...central/southern AR...Far northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092049Z - 092315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon. Hail will likely be the primary threat with these storms, but locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is gradually deepening across parts of the ArkLaTex region this afternoon, beneath an extensive cirrus shield emanating from the subtropical Pacific. A few lightning flashes have been noted with a developing cell across far northeast TX, with other attempts at convective initiation noted on regional radar. Large-scale ascent is likely to remain subtle at best over the next several hours within broad southwesterly flow aloft, but continued filtered heating of a moist and weakly capped environment may support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft (-16C to -18C at 500 mb) atop a relatively moist boundary layer are supporting favorable buoyancy through midlevels, though a notable temperature inversion near the base of the subtropical jet near 400 mb will limit CAPE magnitudes (with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) and truncate updraft depths. Despite the relatively low-topped nature of convection, effective shear of 35-45 kt may support some storm organization, and a few stronger multicells and/or a marginal supercell or two could evolve with time. Isolated instances of large hail would likely be the primary initial threat with any organized storm, though isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled out. A gradual increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected from late afternoon into early evening, and could support a brief tornado threat if a supercell can be sustained. With the threat currently expected to be isolated and relatively limited in magnitude, watch issuance is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Thompson.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32299463 31669601 31859656 32359685 33179638 34509586 35439483 35649294 35149122 34599110 33759163 33139281 32609394 32299463 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z On D3/Sunday, a southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will cross the southern Plains, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward out of central/east TX. On the backside of the surface low, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread the Rio Grande Valley, potentially yielding elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions. However, a combination of preceding rainfall across parts of this area and the best wind/RH overlap remaining over Mexico cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Critical probabilities. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist across much of TX behind the aforementioned midlevel trough on D4/Monday, though RH reductions will be limited. Thereafter, zonal midlevel flow will develop across the Rockies through much of next week, supporting weak lee troughing and modestly breezy winds across the central/southern Plains. However, a minimal overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ...Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. Read more