Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024 Read more