Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will exist across the northern CONUS on Thursday, as an upper trough moves quickly eastward across the north-central states, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. Another upper trough is also forecast to rapidly advance from the western states across the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies while deamplifying. Low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain insufficient to support thunderstorms with both of these features. Some low-level moisture should advance inland across parts of TX, mainly Thursday evening into early Friday morning. But, instability across this region will likely remain too meager to support thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will exist across the northern CONUS on Thursday, as an upper trough moves quickly eastward across the north-central states, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. Another upper trough is also forecast to rapidly advance from the western states across the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies while deamplifying. Low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain insufficient to support thunderstorms with both of these features. Some low-level moisture should advance inland across parts of TX, mainly Thursday evening into early Friday morning. But, instability across this region will likely remain too meager to support thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 Read more

MD 0142 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Areas affected...central through east central South Dakota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 141349Z - 141715Z SUMMARY...Snow rates may increase up to around 1 inch per hour, in one or more bands developing within a broader area of snow spreading eastward across central and eastern South Dakota, mainly to the north of the Interstate 90 corridor through 10 AM-Noon CST. DISCUSSION...Downstream of low amplitude mid-level troughing crossing the Rockies, large-scale ascent, associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the north and east of the Black Hills, has supported a developing shield of mostly still light to moderate snow. This is forecast to gradually spread eastward across central and eastern South Dakota, mainly to the north of the Interstate 90 corridor through midday. As it does, models indicate strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis within this regime, which forecast soundings indicate will support increasing upward vertical motion within roughly the 700-600 mb layer, where saturated thermodynamic profiles with temperatures around -14 to -15C are most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. In the presence of precipitable water content increasing to around .4 inches, it appears that this may be accompanied by one or more bands of intensifying snow at rates up to around 1 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44969972 44789656 43959679 43949896 44110057 44969972 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains, recent precipitation/marginal fuels should limit the potential for large fires. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern California and southwest Oregon. Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of lightning flashes are plausible. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024 Read more