Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry westerly downslope flow is still expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated-equivalent surface conditions possible. Typically, such conditions would necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights. However, the lack of more receptive fuels, as well as recent precipitation accumulations, suggest that fire weather highlights are still not needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry westerly downslope flow is still expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated-equivalent surface conditions possible. Typically, such conditions would necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights. However, the lack of more receptive fuels, as well as recent precipitation accumulations, suggest that fire weather highlights are still not needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry westerly downslope flow is still expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated-equivalent surface conditions possible. Typically, such conditions would necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights. However, the lack of more receptive fuels, as well as recent precipitation accumulations, suggest that fire weather highlights are still not needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry westerly downslope flow is still expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated-equivalent surface conditions possible. Typically, such conditions would necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights. However, the lack of more receptive fuels, as well as recent precipitation accumulations, suggest that fire weather highlights are still not needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry westerly downslope flow is still expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated-equivalent surface conditions possible. Typically, such conditions would necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights. However, the lack of more receptive fuels, as well as recent precipitation accumulations, suggest that fire weather highlights are still not needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more