Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak trough will cross the southern High Plains on Wednesday with some weak cyclogenesis expected in the central Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. However, ERC values in this region are above normal and therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime on Thursday will feature a potent mid-level speed max/trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday and Thursday night over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime on Thursday will feature a potent mid-level speed max/trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday and Thursday night over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime on Thursday will feature a potent mid-level speed max/trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday and Thursday night over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime on Thursday will feature a potent mid-level speed max/trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday and Thursday night over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime on Thursday will feature a potent mid-level speed max/trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday and Thursday night over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin, will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping convection shallow and precluding lightning production. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin, will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping convection shallow and precluding lightning production. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin, will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping convection shallow and precluding lightning production. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin, will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping convection shallow and precluding lightning production. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin, will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping convection shallow and precluding lightning production. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Mosier.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Mosier.. 02/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Mosier.. 02/14/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 13 22:12:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 13 22:12:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS through the week, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations poised to eject into the MS Valley from the Rockies. Surface high pressure should spread from the northern High Plains into the Southeast late this week into the weekend before surface lee-troughing becomes established across the Plains into early next week. The surface high pressure should promote overall cool, quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS into the weekend. By early next week, the surface lee troughing will support dry downslope flow across the southern High Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests that these conditions could reach Elevated thresholds. However, fuels across this region are currently poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this far in advance. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more