Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance indicates a progressive flow pattern over the CONUS through the extended period. Models show mean troughing over the eastern states during the Friday-Saturday period while a ridge is forecast over the West. Little in the way of northward moisture return is forecast through early next week. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential will likely remain below the climatological average and be very low through the extended period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow across the US, will emerge over the Plains on Wednesday. This may lead to some weak cyclogenesis in the central Plains. Some increasing winds are expected in the vicinity of this surface low due to the tightening pressure gradient. While some increase in initial attack may be possible given the freeze-cured fuels in the region, above normal fuel moisture should limit the large-fire threat. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime will continue into Thursday and feature a potent mid-level trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more