Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0024 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0024 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0138 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Areas affected...western Florida Panhandle into parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121331Z - 121600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms, including supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes, still seems likely to increase inland of coastal areas. However, an appreciable increase in severe probabilities may not occur until closer to midday (10 AM-Noon CST), across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern Georgia, between Albany and Valdosta. A new Tornado Watch will probably be needed at some point, though it remains uncertain if by the scheduled expiration of Tornado Watch 22. DISCUSSION...Stronger recent thunderstorm development is now focused within a narrow plume of better pre-frontal low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Florida Panhandle into parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. While the boundary-layer across this region has yet to destabilize appreciably, it appears that this will begin to change through midday. It is not clear how much insolation and boundary-layer mixing will contribute, but forecast soundings suggest that, as a surface cyclone begins to deepen more rapidly across western Alabama, low-level thermal and moisture advection will contribute to more rapid modification beneath a cooling mid-level environment. This may not occur until later this morning through midday (16-18Z), across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern Georgia between Albany and Valdosta. However, once it does, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that this will coincide with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strengthening deep-layer shear, supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30818645 31908481 31698386 30808409 29558526 28728649 28998731 29588715 30818645 Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND Read more

WW 22 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 120740Z - 121500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 22 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 140 AM until 900 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms including supercells is expected to increase overnight as low-level atmospheric winds strengthen and additional destabilization occurs. These storms will pose a tornado/damaging wind risk along with isolated severe hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Gulfport MS to 35 miles east of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, including parts of Alabama and north Florida into Georgia and South Carolina. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex early this morning will reach the Tennessee Valley by evening and the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States late tonight. This system will minor and become more compact, with very strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds (70-100 kt) partially overspreading a convectively muddled warm sector across the Southeast. A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the Tennessee Valley today and toward the southern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic tonight. This might influence some northward advancement of a boundary across Georgia today, although relatively widespread precipitation/outflows should effectively define the practical warm sector and today's related surface-based severe risk, as plentiful convection is ongoing early today across southern/eastern Alabama into central/northern Georgia and much of South Carolina. Some northward/inland warm-sector development may more so occur tonight across parts of the Carolinas. Increasingly robust deep-layer shear and ample low-level shear will support organized storm modes, with the most focused potential for diurnally intensifying storms expected to be across northern Florida/southeast Alabama into Georgia today in vicinity of augmenting convective outflows. Modest destabilization and aforementioned shear characteristics will support some embedded supercells as well as bowing segments, capable of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, and possibly some hail as well. Pending the evolution of upstream convection and the extent of northward destabilization, some severe risk may develop into parts of the Carolinas tonight, mainly for coastal areas. Robust deep-layer/low-level shear could yield some severe risk even with minimal destabilization. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, including parts of Alabama and north Florida into Georgia and South Carolina. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex early this morning will reach the Tennessee Valley by evening and the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States late tonight. This system will minor and become more compact, with very strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds (70-100 kt) partially overspreading a convectively muddled warm sector across the Southeast. A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the Tennessee Valley today and toward the southern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic tonight. This might influence some northward advancement of a boundary across Georgia today, although relatively widespread precipitation/outflows should effectively define the practical warm sector and today's related surface-based severe risk, as plentiful convection is ongoing early today across southern/eastern Alabama into central/northern Georgia and much of South Carolina. Some northward/inland warm-sector development may more so occur tonight across parts of the Carolinas. Increasingly robust deep-layer shear and ample low-level shear will support organized storm modes, with the most focused potential for diurnally intensifying storms expected to be across northern Florida/southeast Alabama into Georgia today in vicinity of augmenting convective outflows. Modest destabilization and aforementioned shear characteristics will support some embedded supercells as well as bowing segments, capable of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, and possibly some hail as well. Pending the evolution of upstream convection and the extent of northward destabilization, some severe risk may develop into parts of the Carolinas tonight, mainly for coastal areas. Robust deep-layer/low-level shear could yield some severe risk even with minimal destabilization. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/12/2024 Read more