Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will bring wet conditions to much of the eastern CONUS as it moves from the Southeast to the Atlantic Coast on Monday. Relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent and winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected in the central Plains, but fuels remain very moist and therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, and cool and/or moist surface conditions will preclude any large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more