Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will exist over much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with several mid-level perturbations moving east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but coverage is not expected to warrant a 10-percent thunderstorm coverage area. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Bunting.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic and over southern New England, cool/dry continental air will dominate the majority of the CONUS. Steep midlevel lapse rates were observed this morning over parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and weak convection may occur over southern ID and vicinity, but thunderstorms are not expected due to limited moisture and/or little forcing for ascent. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/13/2024 Read more

MD 0141 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Areas affected...eastern Long Island through southeastern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 131327Z - 131630Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, including hourly rates increasing in excess of 2 inches, appears likely to continue developing east-northeastward across eastern Long Island through the Cape Cod vicinity through 10 AM-1 PM EST. DISCUSSION...The rapidly deepening surface cyclone has shifted offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast and is likely to continue tracking east-northeastward to the south of the Long Island and Cape Cod vicinities through midday. Cooling cloud tops evident in recent satellite imagery across southeastern Pennsylvania into the lower Hudson Valley appear reflective of a strengthening zone of mid/upper-level frontogenesis, which is forecast to continue to develop east-northeastward to the north of the surface cyclone. As forcing for ascent within this zone becomes maximized within the layer most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth (temperatures around -15C), initially near or just below 500 mb in forecast soundings before slowly lowering, it appears that heaviest snow rates will shift across the eastern Long Island/Long Island Sound through Cape Cod vicinities between 15-18Z. With precipitable water beginning to approach .8 inches, and lift forecast to intensify further, particularly near Cape Cod, heaviest sustained snow rates may increase in excess of 2 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41727233 42277016 41606965 41167121 40787264 41727233 Read more

MD 0140 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
Mesoscale Discussion 0140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Areas affected...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York...Long Island and southern Connecticut Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 131008Z - 131445Z SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may become focused across much of the Greater New York City Metropolitan area by 8-11 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to develop east-northeastward into and through much of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England. This includes moderate to occasionally heavy snow developing on the northern periphery of the shield, but the changeover to snow and snow rates have been hampered at least some by boundary-layer temperatures initially above freezing, and a layer between 850-700 mb with above freezing temperatures, as far north as the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity. Significant surface cyclogenesis does now appear underway near/offshore of the Hampton Roads vicinity, with the rapid further deepening of the cyclone forecast as it progresses east-northeastward into the Atlantic through the day. This will be accompanied by southward advection of colder lower/mid-tropospheric air into the the northern Mid Atlantic, and the latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate intensifying deep-layer frontogenesis in a zone across the northern New Jersey/Long Island vicinity through mid to late morning. Beneath strengthening divergence between coupled jet streaks aloft, models indicate that upward vertical motion will become maximized within mid/upper levels, including a layer near and just below 500 mb where temperatures are favorably cold to support large dendritic ice crystal growth. Forecast soundings suggest that saturating and sufficiently cold profiles with precipitable water around .70 inches may focus intensifying and heaviest snow across much of the Greater New York City area through 13-16Z. It appears that this probably will include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally heavier. ..Kerr.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI... LAT...LON 40707315 40407438 40667473 41207396 41397229 40827216 40707315 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However, this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the coast of southern New England through early afternoon. Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024 Read more