Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains across much of the continental U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move eastward through the Mississippi Valley. In response to the high pressure system, northerly flow at low-levels over the eastern third of the nation will help maintain a dry and cold airmass over the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/12/2024 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

MD 0136 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 21... FOR SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Southeast LA into southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 120519Z - 120645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may continue overnight. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing from near the LA coast into southern MS, in advance of a cold front that is approaching from the west. Moderate buoyancy (with MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to promote storm organization, with occasional supercell structures potentially persisting into the early overnight hours. Hail will likely continue to be the primary threat, with localized strong/damaging gusts also possible. While surface winds to the south of the composite outflow boundary have recently veered somewhat, low-level shear remains sufficient to support at least a brief tornado threat, given the rich low-level moisture in place (with dewpoints near 70F). There is some potential for the severe threat to persist across at least the southern portion of WW 21 after the 07Z expiration time. Local extension or new watch issuance may need to be considered, depending on trends regarding storm coverage and intensity over the next 60-90 minutes. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31058917 29939047 29639110 29679136 29939162 30359153 31339111 31889022 31978916 31978856 31138911 31058917 Read more

WW 21 TORNADO LA MS 120055Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East Central Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 655 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of central/southern Mississippi and east-central Louisiana for several more hours. Sufficient shear and instability will maintain some risk of supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Natchez MS to 20 miles east of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more