Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 14 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 14 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Some northeastward expansion has been made to the general thunderstorm area across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Recent RAP guidance suggests that weak but sufficient MUCAPE may develop to support isolated lighting flashes with elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning across this area as a shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Some northeastward expansion has been made to the general thunderstorm area across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Recent RAP guidance suggests that weak but sufficient MUCAPE may develop to support isolated lighting flashes with elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning across this area as a shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Some northeastward expansion has been made to the general thunderstorm area across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Recent RAP guidance suggests that weak but sufficient MUCAPE may develop to support isolated lighting flashes with elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning across this area as a shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Some northeastward expansion has been made to the general thunderstorm area across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Recent RAP guidance suggests that weak but sufficient MUCAPE may develop to support isolated lighting flashes with elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning across this area as a shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Some northeastward expansion has been made to the general thunderstorm area across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Recent RAP guidance suggests that weak but sufficient MUCAPE may develop to support isolated lighting flashes with elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning across this area as a shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a largely zonal flow regime, one shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA today, while a downstream trough progresses from the central Rockies to the mid MS Valley. Shallow/weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes with convection along the northern CA coast and inland to the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills. Ahead of the central CONUS trough and associated surface cyclone, moisture return will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates atop modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer could support isolated lightning flashes with elevated convection overnight across parts of eastern KS into northern MO/extreme southern IA. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary limiting factor for large-fire potential in the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies on Thursday with cyclogenesis anticipated across eastern Colorado. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the southern High Plains. However, fuels are moist in the region and large-fire potential should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary limiting factor for large-fire potential in the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies on Thursday with cyclogenesis anticipated across eastern Colorado. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the southern High Plains. However, fuels are moist in the region and large-fire potential should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary limiting factor for large-fire potential in the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies on Thursday with cyclogenesis anticipated across eastern Colorado. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the southern High Plains. However, fuels are moist in the region and large-fire potential should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, with marginal fuels being the primary limiting factor for large-fire potential in the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies on Thursday with cyclogenesis anticipated across eastern Colorado. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the southern High Plains. However, fuels are moist in the region and large-fire potential should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more