Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/15/2024 Read more

MD 0143 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin into parts of southwestern and south central lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 150800Z - 151200Z SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow appears likely to overspread the remainder of southern Wisconsin into southern lower Michigan through 6-8 AM EST, possibly including a brief burst of very heavy snow rates around or in excess of 2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Rapidly cooling cloud tops in a small cluster overspreading southern Wisconsin appears aided by forcing for ascent beneath a focused area of intensifying upper divergence, between coupled upper jets propagating into and across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. This appears to coincide with a short-lived period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which is forecast to shift across the remainder of southern Wisconsin into portions of southern lower Michigan through 11-13Z. Although surface temperatures generally remain above freezing along this corridor, the saturating column above is sub-freezing. Forecast soundings indicate that temperatures around -15 C are focused near the 600 mb level, where the environment is most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. In response to a period of strengthening lift within this layer, snow rates appear to be increasing. Based on latest model output, it appears that this may include a couple hour period of hourly rates in excess of 1 inch, in the presence of precipitable water increasing to around .5 inches. Latest Rapid Refresh output suggest that a brief burst of 2+ inch per hour rates might not be out of the question. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...MKX... LAT...LON 43548874 43578479 43018361 42278478 42488595 42618785 42738894 43548874 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more