Severe Storms

MD 0148 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170040Z - 170445Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of 3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing. Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+ inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 39078529 40128346 40368289 40838105 40987996 40967914 40867850 40627792 40337768 40067754 39707765 39477780 38457893 38267929 38127958 38077995 38098052 38438436 38468482 38538512 38638531 38848542 39078529 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less. Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason, no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/17/2024 Read more

MD 0147 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois into central and southern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...extreme northern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162104Z - 170100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue over the next several hours. At least 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are expected, accompanied by periods of reduced visibility. DISCUSSION...Heavy snow has been on the increase in terms of coverage and intensity over the last few hours as surface cold air advection along/just north of the OH River is overspread by continued warm-air/moisture advection aloft. Within a broader zonal band of snow, the heaviest rates (i.e. 1+ inch/hr) should occur near the 700 mb frontogenesis axis, where ascent within the dendritic growth zone should be greatest. The heavier snow, along with reduced visibility, should progress east-southeastward this afternoon into the evening hours (per 12Z HREF calibrated guidance). ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39958370 39658349 39108370 38688435 38348555 38148742 38088900 38238993 38459028 38699026 38759022 39048946 39558723 39898549 40048470 39998389 39958370 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 16 22:04:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0147 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois into central and southern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...extreme northern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162104Z - 170100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue over the next several hours. At least 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are expected, accompanied by periods of reduced visibility. DISCUSSION...Heavy snow has been on the increase in terms of coverage and intensity over the last few hours as surface cold air advection along/just north of the OH River is overspread by continued warm-air/moisture advection aloft. Within a broader zonal band of snow, the heaviest rates (i.e. 1+ inch/hr) should occur near the 700 mb frontogenesis axis, where ascent within the dendritic growth zone should be greatest. The heavier snow, along with reduced visibility, should progress east-southeastward this afternoon into the evening hours (per 12Z HREF calibrated guidance). ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39958370 39658349 39108370 38688435 38348555 38148742 38088900 38238993 38459028 38699026 38759022 39048946 39558723 39898549 40048470 39998389 39958370 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D6/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D4/Monday, a shortwave trough will enhance west-northwesterly flow aloft across central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D5/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the current state of fuels across much of the southern Plains (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D6/Wednesday, trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible, given the favorable large-scale pattern. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D6/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...much of Arkansas and from the ArkLaTex into northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161826Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated strong storms capable of producing hail are expected to form over parts of Arkansas this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push into northeast TX and into northern and western AR, while warming and destabilization take place to the east. Visible satellite shows areas of heating over AR with only thin high clouds extending southwestward into TX. Very cold temperatures exist aloft, and as such, continued heating combined with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be more than sufficient to result in an uncapped air mass. Forecast soundings show the potential for low-topped but robust thunderstorms, while veering low-level flow roughly parallel to the front favors cells capable of hail. Some boundary layer mixing of the dewpoints may occur, but heating is expected to compensate, with storms forming near the cold front later this afternoon. ..Jewell/Hart.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35169093 34819086 34339100 33789162 33309280 33009375 32909419 33159462 33769473 34969370 35579306 35679217 35509140 35169093 Read more

MD 0145 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Illinois into central Indiana and western Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161726Z - 162130Z SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow are possible through early afternoon, with up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates and reduced visibility possible. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb jet streak continues to overspread the OH Valley, which is encouraging 850-700 mb warm-air and moisture advection. The low-level warm-air advection trends are increasing the magnitudes of 700 mb frontogenesis, with deep-layer ascent strengthening within deepening/moistening dendritic growth zone. At least a few reports of heavy snow have been received within the past few hours and this trend is expected to continue through the afternoon. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates will remain possible, along with brief periods of reduced visibility associated with an east-to-west oriented snowband. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39968985 40468929 40688653 40768462 40498368 39998348 39798409 39518586 39478744 39518845 39628932 39968985 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more