Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across the country. Short and medium-range guidance show reasonably good agreement in depicting the gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge observed over the Pacific Northwest through the next 48 hours. As this occurs, zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will strengthen, resulting in lee troughing from eastern WY southward into the southern High Plains. Consequently, westerly downslope winds are forecast to increase through the day to around 15-20 mph, resulting in RH reductions into the 20-35% range. Some high-res solutions suggest that areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the northern/central Rockies from east-central WY to eastern NM. However, confidence in the coverage/duration of such conditions - including favorable overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - remains low, owing to spread in diurnal RH minimum forecasts and poor fuel status. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across the country. Short and medium-range guidance show reasonably good agreement in depicting the gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge observed over the Pacific Northwest through the next 48 hours. As this occurs, zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will strengthen, resulting in lee troughing from eastern WY southward into the southern High Plains. Consequently, westerly downslope winds are forecast to increase through the day to around 15-20 mph, resulting in RH reductions into the 20-35% range. Some high-res solutions suggest that areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the northern/central Rockies from east-central WY to eastern NM. However, confidence in the coverage/duration of such conditions - including favorable overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - remains low, owing to spread in diurnal RH minimum forecasts and poor fuel status. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across the country. Short and medium-range guidance show reasonably good agreement in depicting the gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge observed over the Pacific Northwest through the next 48 hours. As this occurs, zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will strengthen, resulting in lee troughing from eastern WY southward into the southern High Plains. Consequently, westerly downslope winds are forecast to increase through the day to around 15-20 mph, resulting in RH reductions into the 20-35% range. Some high-res solutions suggest that areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the northern/central Rockies from east-central WY to eastern NM. However, confidence in the coverage/duration of such conditions - including favorable overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - remains low, owing to spread in diurnal RH minimum forecasts and poor fuel status. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0149 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO WESTERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39027964 39317946 40797816 40987781 41047727 41097559 41007515 40867482 40557450 40117448 39847474 39707510 39607581 39587636 39537690 39397762 39217805 38927844 38757868 38677897 38687925 38787956 39027964 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow, associated with a deep-layer cyclone centered over Quebec, will extend from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley will move east across the Southeast during the period, while a belt of strong southwest flow remains over the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the southern portion of the FL Peninsula will sag southward into the FL Straits by the evening, as a weak area of low pressure develops northeast from the Keys to northeast of the Bahamas. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and north of the boundary are forecast for South FL. Farther west, a flattened mid-level ridge over the Interior West will slowly shift east as a potent mid-level low encroaches on the West Coast. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible late in the day across portions of central and northern CA. Despite favorable wind profiles over the central valley of CA, scant to meager buoyancy will likely limit updraft vigor and storm intensity. ..Smith.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. today, as a shortwave trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s F across much of south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain limited, which should keep any storms that develop unorganized and relatively weak. Out west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in northern California and far southwest Oregon, as an upper-level trough moves inland this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/17/2024 Read more