Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West-northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery across much of the U.S., with a shortwave trough located near the Four Corners. At the surface, a front is located from the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A relatively moist airmass is located from the Texas Coastal Plain northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Instability across this moist airmass is limited. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent will make thunderstorm development unlikely. Elsewhere, dry and relatively cold conditions are in place across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West-northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery across much of the U.S., with a shortwave trough located near the Four Corners. At the surface, a front is located from the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A relatively moist airmass is located from the Texas Coastal Plain northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Instability across this moist airmass is limited. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent will make thunderstorm development unlikely. Elsewhere, dry and relatively cold conditions are in place across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 15 23:16:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0144 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR 2 EASTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Areas affected...2 Eastern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 152313Z - 160315Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow across central New York will likely spread east into eastern New York over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a fairly well organized snow band has become established over central NY state based on composite reflectivity and water-vapor trends. Although recent CAMs have depicted the evolution of this band, the overall intensity appears to be stronger than initially suggested by CAM output when compared to observed visibility reductions (1/2 to 1/4 mile from Syracuse to Utica, NY) and regional web cams. Pockets of snowfall rates approaching 1 inch/hour appear probable within the band based on these observations, and should persist for the next 1-3 hours as the band spreads across eastern NY. After around 02 UTC, the persistence and intensity of this band becomes less certain as frontogenesis within the 850-700 mb layer abates. However, persistent ascent within the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level jet overlapped with a broad warm frontal zone may allow for pockets of moderate to heavy snowfall rates to persist after 02 UTC into the New England region. ..Moore.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42117490 43647564 43897600 44147601 44447582 44987489 44997380 44977349 44797330 44447328 42937323 42517335 42177345 41887365 41647369 41527391 41427418 41477448 41617462 41917477 42117490 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 15 22:26:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z On D5/Monday, a compact shortwave trough embedded in broad/enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, encouraging lee troughing and locally dry/breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. By D6/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will further strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale western-CONUS trough. Related downslope flow and a deeper lee trough will promote increasingly dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While these meteorological conditions would typically support at least 40-percent Critical probabilities, the current state of fuels (given recent precipitation) casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. On D7/Wednesday, the aforementioned western-CONUS trough and accompanying jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, and associated lee cyclogenesis should favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH once again across the southern High Plains (though likely windier and drier than previous days). Despite continued model disagreement on the exact evolution of the midlevel trough/jet streak and surface mass response, confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions is fairly high given the favorable large-scale pattern. With that said, similar concerns regarding marginal fuels over the area limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D7/Wednesday will have to be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more