Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance shows short-wave length of the upper-air pattern during most of the extended period. Initially a dry offshore flow regime over the Gulf will transition to the early stage of moisture return/modification over the southern Great Plains and lower MS Valley by Wednesday (day 6). It seems moisture quality and buoyancy will be the primary concerns/limiting factors as a speed max is progged to move across the Southeast during the latter half of the extended period. Although some potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms may eventually develop, predictability is low at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A split upper-air flow regime will feature mean troughing over the East and West coasts. A broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico/central Gulf Coast states will slowly move east during the period. An associated cold front over the southern half of the FL Peninsula will accelerate south into the FL Straits Sunday night, as a weak cyclone develops northeastward from the southeast Gulf to north of the Bahamas. A few thunderstorms are possible south of the boundary over mainly the Keys/Everglades. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity despite some indication for strengthening low to mid tropospheric flow. Showers and an episodic low chance for thunderstorms will probably focus near the northern CA coast and coastal range mountains. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A split upper-air flow regime will feature mean troughing over the East and West coasts. A broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico/central Gulf Coast states will slowly move east during the period. An associated cold front over the southern half of the FL Peninsula will accelerate south into the FL Straits Sunday night, as a weak cyclone develops northeastward from the southeast Gulf to north of the Bahamas. A few thunderstorms are possible south of the boundary over mainly the Keys/Everglades. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity despite some indication for strengthening low to mid tropospheric flow. Showers and an episodic low chance for thunderstorms will probably focus near the northern CA coast and coastal range mountains. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A split upper-air flow regime will feature mean troughing over the East and West coasts. A broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico/central Gulf Coast states will slowly move east during the period. An associated cold front over the southern half of the FL Peninsula will accelerate south into the FL Straits Sunday night, as a weak cyclone develops northeastward from the southeast Gulf to north of the Bahamas. A few thunderstorms are possible south of the boundary over mainly the Keys/Everglades. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity despite some indication for strengthening low to mid tropospheric flow. Showers and an episodic low chance for thunderstorms will probably focus near the northern CA coast and coastal range mountains. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A split upper-air flow regime will feature mean troughing over the East and West coasts. A broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico/central Gulf Coast states will slowly move east during the period. An associated cold front over the southern half of the FL Peninsula will accelerate south into the FL Straits Sunday night, as a weak cyclone develops northeastward from the southeast Gulf to north of the Bahamas. A few thunderstorms are possible south of the boundary over mainly the Keys/Everglades. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity despite some indication for strengthening low to mid tropospheric flow. Showers and an episodic low chance for thunderstorms will probably focus near the northern CA coast and coastal range mountains. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A split upper-air flow regime will feature mean troughing over the East and West coasts. A broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico/central Gulf Coast states will slowly move east during the period. An associated cold front over the southern half of the FL Peninsula will accelerate south into the FL Straits Sunday night, as a weak cyclone develops northeastward from the southeast Gulf to north of the Bahamas. A few thunderstorms are possible south of the boundary over mainly the Keys/Everglades. Weak instability will likely limit storm intensity despite some indication for strengthening low to mid tropospheric flow. Showers and an episodic low chance for thunderstorms will probably focus near the northern CA coast and coastal range mountains. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ..Moore.. 02/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will slowly move east on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast. A cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Poor to modest lapse rates atop a still modifying maritime airmass may yield pockets of weak buoyancy and a low chance for a few weak thunderstorms over portions of the FL Peninsula. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period, and a few lightning flashes may occur near the north coast of CA. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will slowly move east on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast. A cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Poor to modest lapse rates atop a still modifying maritime airmass may yield pockets of weak buoyancy and a low chance for a few weak thunderstorms over portions of the FL Peninsula. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period, and a few lightning flashes may occur near the north coast of CA. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will slowly move east on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast. A cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Poor to modest lapse rates atop a still modifying maritime airmass may yield pockets of weak buoyancy and a low chance for a few weak thunderstorms over portions of the FL Peninsula. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period, and a few lightning flashes may occur near the north coast of CA. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will slowly move east on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast. A cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Poor to modest lapse rates atop a still modifying maritime airmass may yield pockets of weak buoyancy and a low chance for a few weak thunderstorms over portions of the FL Peninsula. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period, and a few lightning flashes may occur near the north coast of CA. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will slowly move east on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast. A cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Poor to modest lapse rates atop a still modifying maritime airmass may yield pockets of weak buoyancy and a low chance for a few weak thunderstorms over portions of the FL Peninsula. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period, and a few lightning flashes may occur near the north coast of CA. ..Smith.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No appreciable severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough at mid-levels will move eastward from the Great Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. Weak low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist corridor in the Ozarks around midday. Storm coverage will likely expand as scattered convection moves eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Instability is forecast to remain limited along and near the moist axis where surface dewpoints should only be in the lower to mid 50s F. Due to very weak instability, the stronger storms are expected to remain largely, if not entirely sub-severe. The potential for thunderstorms will shift eastward into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. Elsewhere across most of the continental U.S., conditions will be dry and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Broyles/Moore.. 02/16/2024 Read more