Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The current forecast remains on track. No changes made. ... Western Kansas ... Relative humidity is still forecast to fall into the low teens this afternoon, with surface winds up to 20 mph, with gusts approaching 30 mph. However, fuel moisture should remain sufficiently high to warrant a more widespread critical fire weather threat. Thus, despite the possibility of brief, localized critical fire weather conditions being achieved, no critical highlights have been added. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies amid breezy conditions and dry-thunderstorm chances, but will also emerge across parts of western KS and adjacent areas of CO and NE. ...Idaho into Wyoming... Recent upper-air observations and analyses show a diffuse cold front draped across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies associated with a passing mid-level wave. This feature will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region, but also induce 15-20 mph westerly winds across the upper Snake River Plain in southeast ID as well as across the Wyoming Basin. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are possible by early/mid afternoon as stronger mid-level flow mixes down to the surface. Despite the cooler temperatures, poor moisture recovery into the region and some degree of downslope flow (especially through the Wyoming Basin) will result in the RH values near 10-15%. Confidence remains high in several hours of elevated conditions, but periodic critical conditions are possible for wind-prone locations and where/when higher wind gusts occur. ...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... Water-vapor imagery reveals a plume of monsoonal moisture advecting northward through eastern NV and western AZ on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. This moisture was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding, and should reach UT/CO by early afternoon. While forcing for ascent will be modest (and should limit the coverage of storms), forecast soundings continue to show favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE, deep, well-mixed boundary layers, and PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.75 inches. Slow storm motions may limit the number of dry strikes, but receptive fuels across the region warrant maintaining the dry-thunderstorm risk. ...Western Kansas... A lee trough noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains is forecast to shift into the central Plains as an attendant surface low migrates east into the upper MS River Valley. This will augment the regional pressure gradient, resulting in sustained surface winds up to 15-20 mph. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures with afternoon highs between 100-105 F for western KS. This will result in widespread RH reduction to 10-20% by late afternoon. Although most fuels are only modestly dry, 1 and 10 hour fuel moisture values between 5-10% should support at least a low-end fire weather concern. A few high-based thunderstorms are possible across northwest KS this afternoon, and may result in gusty outflow winds across parts of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. ...MN and vicinity through late evening... The ongoing MCS across northern MN has been more resilient than all recent numerical model guidance (both mesoscale and CAM), and it may persist eastward into northeast MN through early afternoon as surface heating/destabilization continues to its east. Given the organized nature of the cold pool and its relatively fast motion, damaging gusts will remain possible into early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon along the outflow boundary trailing west/southwestward from the MCS into west central MN and southeast ND. This area will likely remain capped until mid afternoon as a result of the warm elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z ABR sounding. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-70 F beneath 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates, in concert with daytime heating, should weaken convective inhibition and allow thunderstorm development around 21-22z. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and a tornado or two. Some upscale growth into a small cluster will be possible, with an attendant threat for damaging winds as the convection moves southeastward toward east central MN. ...NE WY and vicinity late this afternoon through early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest MT this morning will crest the midlevel ridge and begin to move east-southeastward by early tonight. Residual low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and a reinforcing cold frontal surge may be sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development by this evening, with storms subsequently spreading southeastward into early tonight. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be favorable for supercells/small bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...NE late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a cold front will promote high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon, and storms will spread east-northeastward along the front toward IA into early tonight. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (~1500 J/kg) will favor strong-severe outflow gusts. ...Northwest Gulf Coast this afternoon... A weak cold front is sagging southward across the Gulf Coast states in association with a weak midlevel trough moving southward around the eastern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern High Plains. A hot/humid boundary layer persists south of the front from southeast TX into southern LA, where Large CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging downbursts with pulse-type cells and loosely organized, southward moving clusters this afternoon. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/10/2022 Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DTL TO 35 S RRT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 ..MOSIER..07/10/22 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-057-101640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI HUBBARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM MN 101515Z - 101900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central and northeast Minnesota * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An ongoing convective system is expected to continue eastward across northern Minnesota for the next few hours, with the threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail to near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of International Falls MN to 35 miles east southeast of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 14:46:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 Darby has become better organized this morning. A 0916 UTC AMSR2 and more recent 1216 UTC SSMIS microwave pass have revealed increased banding over the eastern semicircle of the storm and an improved low-level inner core structure. Early-light visible satellite imagery also shows an increase in banding and the development of a small CDO feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have responded accordingly and are now up to 45 and 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory. There still appears to be some entrainment of drier mid-level air over the northwestern portion of the circulation, but with low environmental shear and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) ahead, Darby should be able to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, primarily due to the higher initial intensity. The new forecast calls for Darby to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and then peak in intensity in a couple of days. After that time, gradually decreasing SSTs and a more stable environment should lead to steady weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 24-48 hours and is in best agreement with the European-based SHIPS model. Thereafter, it is close to the various consensus aids. Darby continues to move westward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should continue on a westward motion to the south of a mid-level ridge extending westward from the northern portion of Baja California. In a few days the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken which should cause Darby to turn west-northwestward. The track guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, though the UKMET model depicts a much weaker Darby and shows a faster westward motion. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which is a little slower than the consensus aids due to the contribution from the much faster UKMET model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101444 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 34 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 66(68) 17(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 67(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 ...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Jul 10 the center of Darby was located near 14.3, -117.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101444 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, as well as other parts of the Southeast. ...Upper Midwest/North Dakota... Initially, a severe fast-moving (50+ kt) MCS is ongoing early this morning from far eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Severe-caliber wind gusts will remain possible for a time, but the system should eventually weaken this morning as inflow diminishes. That said, given the large-scale support aloft, complete dissipation is not expected and the primary question is to what degree/where robust convection develops in the wake of the MCS debris field along the advancing frontal zone. This currently appears most probable across northern Minnesota along the southern edge of the ongoing MCS where differential heating/frontal convergence should be adequate for renewed convective development by around mid-afternoon. Strong shear suggests supercells are possible, with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. Farther west, additional strong/severe storms, at least on an isolated basis, may develop/move southeastward across the international border into northern North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. With moderate recovery in the wake of the MCS early today, at least isolated severe storms capable of wind/hail may occur and have maintained the ongoing Slight Risk for this post-MCS/later-day severe potential. ...Northern High Plains... Surface pressure rises across Montana will create a narrow corridor of favorable low-level upslope flow along the Montana/Wyoming border by late afternoon as a secondary surface boundary strengthens and advances south during the evening. While PW values will not be particularly moist (around 1 inch), strong surface heating and orographic influences should aid at least isolated robust development. Forecast soundings suggest strongly sheared storms could generate gusty winds as high-based supercells spread southeast toward the Black Hills region. ...Southeast Texas/southern Louisiana... Strengthening northwesterly flow across the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South region will ensure a surface boundary sags south across Louisiana, arcing west into south-central Texas. Very strong surface heating will allow temperatures to soar above 100F across southeast Texas with mid 90s into southwest Louisiana. While deep-layer flow will be weak along this corridor, high PW values and warm temperatures should contribute to a few robust updrafts. Forecast soundings across southeast Texas suggest cloud bases may be near 3km AGL and this may contribute to gusty downdrafts due to relatively low sub-cloud RH values. ...Coastal Carolinas and vicinity... Although cloud cover is semi-prevalent early today, a few strong to locally severe storms may occur into the afternoon across South Carolina and nearby parts of Georgia/coastal North Carolina. Moderate diurnal destabilization ahead of an upstream shortwave trough will influence the potential for these stronger updrafts/downdrafts, with some localized wind damage a possibility. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/10/2022 Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR TO 30 ENE JMS TO 45 WSW HCO. ..LEITMAN..07/10/22 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-017-035-073-091-097-101340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS RANSOM STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Darby, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested to assist with the Koonce Fire on the afternoon of Wednesday, July 6th. The Koonce Fire is located approximately 5 miles West of Iowa Park off of FM 367, TAMFS is currently working in unified command with local responders, two dozer crews have began constructing containment line with additional dozer crews on the way to assist, aviation resources have also been ordered up to support the ground

Hot, dry weather tipped Vermont and New Hampshire into abnormal dryness. A Vermont well driller noted how dry streams, rivers and the water table were very early in the summer. A farmer in Newport, N.H., reported that raspberries required manual watering for the first time this year. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), July 8, 2022

Burn permits were not being issued in Gratiot County, due to moderate drought conditions in the area. Morning Sun (Alma, Mich.), July 8, 2022

Drought, heat and strong winds hurt the wheat crop in northeast Colorado. The winter snowpack was also lacking, leaving the wheat with little moisture through the winter. The wheat was thin and facing weed pressure. The heads were not long, and wheat quality was uncertain. Dry conditions in the fall of 2021 caused wheat growers to delay planting until November, and some growers did not plant for lack of water. 9News (Denver, Colo.), July 8, 2022

Corn production was about half or a little less of normal about 35 miles north of Corpus Christi, due to drought. Texas Standard (Austin), July 8, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes needed. ..Marsh.. 07/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the Great Basin for today. Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level trough moving onshore across northern CA. This feature will shift into the northern Rockies through the day, augmenting mid and low-level flow over the Great Basin and central Rockies in response. The combination of an antecedent dry air mass, receptive fuels, and increasing winds will result in critical to elevated fire weather conditions. ...Great Basin... 00 UTC soundings from NV and UT sampled a very dry low-level air mass Friday evening with RH values in the single digits. This air mass will largely remain in place and promote afternoon RH values near 10% as low-level trajectories continue to emanate largely from southern CA desert and/or off the Sierra Nevada. Stronger mid and upper-level winds were also noted in soundings along the West Coast ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These winds will overspread the Great Basin by peak daytime heating, and when combined with deep boundary-layer mixing, will support sustained 15-20 mph winds with frequent gusts between 25-35 mph. Guidance continues to show increasing confidence in sustained critical conditions across eastern NV into western and northwestern UT. Brief critical conditions may extend into southeast ID as winds gusts to near 30 mph, but these conditions should remain somewhat localized/transient. Elevated conditions are probable across northwest NV as well as central WY, but latest fuel guidance continues to show only marginally dry fuels. ...Central High Plains... Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, most notably across the SD/WY/NE tri-state region where winds between 15-20 mph are possible and RH values may fall into the low teens. However, recent rainfall across this region has allowed ERC values to fall to near seasonal normal, mitigating the need for additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more