Aggregator

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300535 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 105.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or over the Islas Marias archipelago in a few hours. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should soon begin in the Islas Marias, and will spread northward over the remainder of the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.0, -105.8 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 05:33:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300533 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 43.2W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 43.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 28.1, -43.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Narda, located near the southwest coast of Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early this week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Intensifying drought conditions led to numerous burn bans in southern Indiana, meaning that traditional fall bonfires and other outdoor fires were prohibited. Louisville Courier-Journal (Ky.), Sept. 28, 2019

One hundred counties in Kentucky had bans on outdoor burning, due to drought. Louisville Courier-Journal (Ky.), Sept. 30, 2019 As drought persisted in Kentucky, 71 counties banned open burning to reduce the likelihood of wildfires. WKMS-FM 91.3 News for the Four Rivers Region (Murray, Ky.), Sept. 23, 2019 More than 50 Kentucky counties have restrictions on outdoor burning as the lack of rain increased the forest fire danger. WKYT-TV CBS 27 Lexington (Ky.), Sept. 18, 2019 Several Kentucky counties enacted bans on outdoor burning as moderate drought conditions and an uptick in forest fires warranted the fire restrictions. Officials in Jackson County issued a ban on Sept. 15. Bans were enacted in Floyd, Johnson, Knox, Laurel, Lee, Lincoln, Magoffin, Pike and Whitley counties on Sept. 16. A ban took effect in Barren County on Sept. 17. The bans will be rescinded when the fire danger abates. Bowling Green Daily News (Ky.), Sept. 17, 2019

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..09/30/19 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-029-045-047-051-085-300540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY EMMONS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH SIOUX SDC013-019-021-031-041-045-049-055-063-065-081-089-093-103-105- 107-117-119-129-137-300540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HARDING HUGHES LAWRENCE MCPHERSON MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667... FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming...northern and western South Dakota...and southern North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667... Valid 300411Z - 300615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for large hail continues with isolated severe storms. DISCUSSION...Radar loop shows isolated thunderstorms -- particularly over the northwestern corner of South Dakota, advancing northeastward with time. The storms are elevated above a cool/stable boundary layer, north of a warm front near the Nebraska Panhandle/South Dakota border. Evening RAP RAOB, and area model forecast soundings, reveal substantial elevated CAPE, while strong southwesterly flow aloft remains supportive of supercells. Several reports of hail in excess of severe thresholds have been received, with this risk likely to continue into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 09/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43580410 44550440 45790200 46729899 46449783 45499742 44339991 43580410 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:46:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday, the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during that time. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. After that time, however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it remains separate. There isn't much change in the newest guidance, although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east of the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late Tuesday or early Wednesday. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.6N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 300241 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 65(96) X(96) X(96) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 74(77) X(77) X(77) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) X(43) X(43) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas on Monday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday in the Azores. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 27.6, -43.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 43.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:31:43 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 My best estimate of Narda's position based on conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations, is inland near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. There may be other small swirls embedded within a surface trough that lies from the Islas Marias archipelago southeastward to Puerto Vallarta, Narda, and Manzanillo. However, the mid-level circulation center that we have been tracking, which is near ground level in this mountainous region, is the feature that has had the most continuity. A curved band of intense deep convection consisting of cloud tops of -85C to -90C, with isolated overshooting tops to -95C, wraps about half around the center and generally corresponds to 35-kt winds. Due to land interaction, however, the initial intensity is being held just below tropical storm strength or 30 kt. The initial motion is 315/18 kt. A large ridge anchored to the east of Narda is expected to steer the the cyclone northwestward for the next 3 days. This will result in Narda emerging back over the Pacific Ocean in about 6 hours, then passing near or over the Islas Marias islands Monday morning, followed by a track near or just offshore the northwestern coast of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. A second landfall is expected along the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, followed by dissipation Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies just a tad to the left of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, which move the center inland in about 24 hours. The intensity forecast remains highly uncertain, and leans toward a consensus of the wind fields in the global models, which show Narda regaining tropical storm status in 6-12 hours as a band of 35-kt winds forms between the center and the mountainous coastline, likely due to funneling/orographic effects. The upper-level environment is forecast to be conducive for additional strengthening when Narda moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California after 12-18 hours, but land interaction is expected to temper any significant strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is flat-lined at 35-kt, although some fluctuations in the intensity is likely. Due to Narda being forecast to regain tropical storm status, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for portions of northwestern Mexico. The primary threat from Narda will continue to be very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart