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Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 350 WTPZ45 KNHC 121448 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 While Darby remains an impressively compact hurricane, there has been a bit of erosion in the inner-core convective structure this morning. The eye in particular has become less distinct and has cooled relative to yesterday afternoon, though the eyewall convection remains strong and quite circular. While an AMSR2 microwave pass at 1042 UTC still showed a closed eyewall, the convection on the northwestern side has eroded some compared to yesterday. Darby remains a very small tropical cyclone, with overnight scatterometer wind data indicating tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 40 n mi to the northeast of the center. While the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak classifications were a consensus CI 6.0/115 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON data is quite a bit lower. The initial intensity on this advisory is set at 110 kt, blending the guidance, but favoring the somewhat higher subjective Dvorak estimates. While the current vertical wind shear (VWS) over Darby remains very low, sea-surface temperatures underneath the hurricane are gradually decreasing, now currently just under 27 C. It seems likely that Darby is now post-peak intensity and should begin to gradually weaken in the short-term under the less favorable thermodynamic environment. After 24 hours, a combination of an increasingly stable and dry airmass, plus an increase in southwesterly VWS from a broad upper-level trough to the northwest of Darby, is expected to lead to a more rapid weakening trend later this week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is still on the high side of the guidance envelope early on, but then shows a faster rate of weakening as the small cyclone encounters a more hostile environment. Darby is still expected to become post-tropical by 96 hours as deep convection is completely removed from the center and dissipates as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models at that period. Darby continues to move on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt. There is not much new to report with the track philosophy, as a mid-level ridge currently north of Darby will be eroded some by the aforementioned upper-level trough. This should result in a bit more west-northwest bend in Darby's track between 24-60 hours. After that period, Darby is expected to become an increasingly shallow vortex, and its track should turn back westward following the trade-wind flow around a large low-level subtropical ridge poleward of Hawaii. The latest track forecast is little changed from the prior advisory, and remains close to the tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 129.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121445 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 130W 64 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 34 1 78(79) 16(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 135W 50 X 43(43) 33(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 135W 64 X 16(16) 34(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121444 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, are expected from New England through the Mid-Atlantic States into the central Appalachian region and Tennessee Valley, especially this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may also be noted across the Upper Midwest and over the central High Plains. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... A relatively favorable setup for severe weather is in place across the region, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk with a somewhat higher/semi-focused corridor of likely severe storms mainly capable of wind damage. Early this morning, a notable shortwave trough/speed max are crossing the Lower Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity and will reach northern New England later today. 12z regional observed soundings already sample strong westerlies aloft at locations such as IAD/BUF/PIT, with the Pittsburgh (PIT) sounding also sampling a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates that will advect eastward today. Surface heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the eastward-advancing front and near a pre-frontal surface trough. This will likely lead to scattered convective development ahead of the front by midday, which will spread into New England later in the afternoon. Scattered convection may be delayed a few hours across the middle Atlantic into the central Appalachians as large-scale forcing will be negligible at lower latitudes. Even so, ample buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector and forecast shear should support the possibility for organized updrafts, potentially including a few initial supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat with convection this afternoon/evening across this region, but a few instances of hail and/or a brief tornado could also occur ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes... A secondary clipper-type shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the region later this afternoon into tonight. Low-level moisture will be limited, but cooling temperatures aloft and strong surface heating could support some stronger semi-low-topped storms this afternoon through early evening. Locally damaging winds and possibly hail could occur particularly across northern/eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. ...Central High Plains... Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will exist on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered near the Four Corners area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and spread southeastward across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. While PW values are not particularly high across this region, SBCAPE values could approach 1500 J/kg, which should be enough to warrant at least some threat for several hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/12/2022 Read more

704
ABPZ20 KNHC 121159
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift
westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph later this week while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Hearst Castle changed its operations to conserve water due to limited resources and for firefighting. The restrooms at the Visitor Center were closed and replaced with portable chemical toilets. Bus and vehicle washing was suspended, and irrigation around the Visitor Center ended. The restrooms at Hearst Beach were also replaced with portable toilets. Hearst Castle began operating under water restrictions in May in accordance with its Drought Contingency Plan. KSBY-TV San Luis Obispo (Calif.), July 12, 2022

Houston Public Works said that they have been receiving an average of 300 calls per week about water leaks since the heat ramped up in June. On July 10, they had 238 open work orders. Repair crews aim to respond to the largest leaks first, which leaves some of the smaller leaks running for a while. KTRK ABC 13 (Houston, Texas), July 11, 2022 Dry soil in Houston led to 50 water main breaks over the weekend, indicating that the dry soil is shifting and stressing the pipes. KHOU (Houston, Texas), June 22, 2022

Water conservation in May was 3.1% statewide as Northern Californians curbed water use by 8.5%, while Southern Californians cut by 2.2%. This is still shy of the 15% water conservation compared to 2020 levels that Gov. Newsom requested in July 2021. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), July 8, 2022 Amid California’s third year of drought, urban water use was up 17.6% in April, despite Gov. Newsom’s call to conserve 15% compared to a year ago. April is the third month in 2022 where water use has risen instead of decreased. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), June 7, 2022 Californians’ water use in March was up 18.9% from March 2020 as people watered lawns earlier than usual amid the driest start to the year on record. Water use averaged 77 gallons per person per day. Even though Gov. Newsom asked for 15% water conservation, water use has gradually risen. Statewide, water consumption is up just 3.7% since July compared to 2020, falling short of Newsom’s 15% goal. To encourage additional water conservation, Gov. Newsom pledged to direct $100 million toward a statewide advertising campaign. He also vowed to spend $211 million to save more water in state government buildings by replacing plumbing fixtures and irrigation controls. Associated Press News (New York), May 10, 2022

Drought has nearly decimated the corn in Bell County. Killeen Daily Herald (Texas), July 11, 2022

Utahns were warned to be careful as extreme fire danger affected much of Utah with the weather being hot, windy and dry. People caused twenty-three fires over the weekend. One fire was sparked by a faulty generator, resulting in the Jacob City fire. Firefighting resources are also stretched thin. Four men were arrested after it was determined that the Halfway Hill fire began at their campsite. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), July 11, 2022

As of July 1, 2022 the fire is 100% contained. The fire will be put into monitor status over the holiday weekend with two engines remaining on scene for monitoring.

Heat and very little to no rain since June 3 leave crops drying up in in the vicinity of Des Arc in eastern Arkansas. The reservoir on a farm has dropped six to eight feet and may run dry soon without rain. Farmers irrigate if they have the capability, but it’s expensive to do so. Farmers are praying for rain. WREG-TV (Memphis, Tenn.), July 11, 2022

A burn ban order was implemented for Howell County by the county commission because the area was in severe drought and will remain in effect until further notice. Open burning , prescribed burning and careless smoking were prohibited. Ozark Radio News (West Plains, Mo.), July 11, 2022

The North Dakota Game and Fish Department’s spring pheasant crowing count survey found 22% fewer roosters this year compared to 2021. The spring count found 14.1 crows per stop in the southwest region, down from 18.4 in 2021. There were 13.7 crows per stop in the northwest, down from 14.3 the previous year, and 9.7 crows per stop in the southeast, down from 14.5. The northeast is not a primary region for pheasants, but the southwest has prime pheasant habitat. The annual pheasant brood survey late last summer found similar numbers as 23% fewer birds were observed. Spring precipitation eased drought in North Dakota and may also promote insect hatches, which would provide food for pheasant chicks. Pheasant production will begin to be assessed at the end of July. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), July 11, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes have been made to the outlook, see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will predominantly linger across central UT for today, driven by the potential for dry thunderstorms. A persistent upper ridge over the southern Rockies will likely shift slightly southwest in response to a modestly deepening trough across the Midwest. This will yield a benign surface pressure regime and low potential for wind-driven fire weather threats (though a few localized concerns may emerge). However, this will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances across the greater Four Corners region this afternoon. ...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings with PWAT values around 0.75 inches in place across AZ and UT. Nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layers and 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE are also noted. This thermodynamic environment resulted in a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, and is expected to largely remain unchanged through this afternoon given the stagnant synoptic regime. Orographic ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with the potential for dry lightning strikes. Slow storm motions (generally < 10 knots) may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but peripheral lightning strikes over receptive fuels will maintain a fire weather concern. ...Southern Nevada and Western Texas... Hot temperatures near or above 100 F are expected this afternoon across southern NV and western TX. These hot temperatures combined with seasonal to below-seasonal dewpoints will result in 10-20% RH values by late afternoon. While pressure gradient winds will generally be between 10-15 mph, deep boundary-layer mixing may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and elevated fire weather conditions. Confidence in the duration and coverage of these conditions remains too low for additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 11 16:41:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1449 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Areas affected...Southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111630Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves into southwest Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms has intensified as it moves over southern Lake Michigan. Low-level stability in place suggests these storms are currently elevated. The downstream air mass across southwest Lower MI is currently characterized by upper 70s temperatures, low 60s dewpoints, and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (based on recent mesoanalysis). Some additional heating/moistening of the low-levels is anticipated, but low-level stability should persist, likely limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, some isolated gusty winds appear probable as occasional downbursts penetrate the low-level stability. Limited severe coverage should preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41968656 42398630 42938622 43388643 43538623 43398555 43038505 42458502 41928536 41798622 41968656 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Isolated strong-severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the upper Great Lakes. ...Central IL to Lower MI late this afternoon into early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN will progress east-southeastward over the Great Lakes by tonight, as an associated/weak surface cold front moves southeastward into KS/MO/IL/MI. An overnight MCS has largely dissipated across northern IL this morning (aside from a few elevated storms over southern Lake MI), but lingering cloud debris will slow surface heating into early afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, pockets of surface heating and eastward advection of low-level moisture along the cold front will result in sufficient destabilization and weakening of the cap to allow thunderstorm development from northern IL across northern IN into southern Lower MI by this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and corridor of storm initiation, given lingering clouds and modest forcing for ascent. If storms do form from IL into Lower MI by this evening along the front and/or differential heating zone, moderate buoyancy and 50 kt midlevel flow will support a threat for damaging outflow gusts. ...Northeast MN into WI/northern Lower MI through this evening... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread southeastward through this afternoon/evening, from northeast MN across WI and northern Lower MI in the zone of strongest forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough over MN. There could be sufficient residual low-level moisture, cooling midlevel temperatures, and deep-layer vertical shear (largely straight hodographs) for some organized clusters/low-topped supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and large hail. ...Southeast CO/KS/MO late this afternoon into early tonight... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front late this afternoon/evening from MO into southern KS in conjunction with deep mixing along the cold front. Somewhat greater storm coverage expected across southeast CO/northeast NM in the upslope flow regime immediately north of the front. Vertical shear will be weak south of the front, with somewhat longer hodographs in the sheltered northeasterly low-level flow to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Primarily multicell clusters will be capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts in the hot, steep low-level lapse rate environment along the front, and convection could linger into the overnight hours in the zone of richer moisture to the cool side of the boundary. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/11/2022 Read more

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111454 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 What a difference 24 hours makes! Darby has been rapidly intensifying for the last 12-18 hours, with the eye continuing to clear out on GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery surrounded by a thick ring of cold -65 to -75C cloud top temperatures. It is clear that the tropical cyclone was able to mix out the remaining dry air near its center last night and the last several microwave passes from GMI at 0732 UTC and AMSR2 at 0959 UTC have an impressive presentation with a thick ring of eyewall convection on the 89-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are constrained due to Dvorak rules, but their data-T numbers were both T5.5/102 kt. The most recent CI number from the UW-CIMSS objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) was at T6.0/115 kt. Favoring the higher ADT estimate more, the current intensity is set to 110 kt, though this could be conservative. There are no obvious signs currently that would prevent Darby from intensifying further. There are few indications that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent from the earlier microwave imagery and SHIPS guidance indicates the storm remains in a very low shear (near 5 kt) environment and over sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures (27-28 C). Thus, rapid intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 h, and the NHC foreast intensity peaks Darby at 120 kt, which matches the latest ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS which have correctly been on the high side of the guidance envelope. After 36 hours, Darby is expected to move into sub 26C SSTs, and westerly shear is forecast to increase between 48-72 hours. Thus, the small vortex of Darby could weaken rapidly after 36 hours, with the latest intensity forecast still making the system a post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period. Darby is continuing westward along at the same general speed and heading at 270/13 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to its north. The hurricane is expected to approach a slight weakness in the ridge after 24 hours, allowing the cyclone to gradually shift to a more west-northwestward track between 36-72 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, as Darby becomes shallow vortex, its track will likely bend back westward as the low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The latest track forecast is not all that different from the previous one, choosing to remain close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GEFX) which remains just a bit north of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE, which are influenced by the further south tracks of the weaker HWRF/HMON/UKMET guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin