Aggregator

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of Bonnie was located near 18.3, -120.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081433 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

The Gatlin Creek Fire began on July 6th, 2022 in the area of Gatlin Creek Rd and Mt. Olive School Road. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with Hays County. Aviation resources have been used to slow fire rate of spread, including a large air tanker, single engine air tankers, a type one large helicopter, and Travis County Starflight. Heavy equipment is being used to construct containment lines along the fires edge. Evacuations:All evacuations were lifted at 8:30pm July

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe winds and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of severe storms may also develop this afternoon into evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough/convectively reinforced MCV near the Iowa/Missouri/Illinois border at daybreak will continue east-southeastward today coincident with moderately enhanced (30-40 kt 500-700 mb) westerlies over the Ohio Valley. Some scattered strong storms are ongoing across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana early today. The persistence of this convection will help to reinforce a slow-moving front across the region. Storms should further develop and intensify into this afternoon within an unstable environment across southern Indiana into central/eastern Kentucky and possibly southwest Ohio, with the moderately strong flow potentially allowing for some weak/transient supercells aside from a more prevalent tendency for organizing bands and linear segments. Damaging winds will likely be the most common risk overall, but some hail may occur as well especially with any storms exhibiting supercellular characteristics, which is most probable across parts of Kentucky and far southern Indiana. Additional severe storms may form by mid/late afternoon through early evening along the southeastward-advancing front across far southern Illinois/southeast Missouri and western Kentucky, and possibly into Tennessee. ...Montana/Northern High Plains... Broad mid-level height rises are expected across much of the central and western CONUS, but a shortwave trough will eject across Montana into southeast Saskatchewan/northwest North Dakota later today. Strong surface heating will remove CINH by mid-afternoon and scattered thunderstorms should once again develop across the mountains of Idaho into southwest Montana by late afternoon. Seasonally strong southwesterly mid-level flow will encourage this activity to spread toward lower elevations where higher moisture/buoyancy will provide an opportunity for upscale growth. Forecast soundings suggest supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds can be expected, while an increasing low-level jet across eastern Montana during the evening should support this activity propagating toward western North Dakota after sunset. ...Southern Plains to Mid-South... A surface front will settle southward across the region through the afternoon and early evening. Strong insolation and heating will allow temperatures to soar above 100F near/south of the front, while PW values will be around 2 inches particularly across parts of Oklahoma/Arkansas. With large temperature/dew point spreads at the surface, isolated severe downbursts may occur across the region this afternoon through around sunset. ...Maine... Isolated strong storms may occur primarily across northern Maine along/ahead of a cold front that will surge southeastward across northern New England this afternoon. Overall buoyancy nor mid-level lapse rates will be robust, but steep low-level lapse rates and strong unidirectional westerlies could yield gusty winds/small hail with the most robust convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/08/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 .Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) received a request for assistance for a fire off  East Hwy  85 in Frio County Texas. The request was received on July 6, 2022 at approximately  10:30 a.m. this morning. TAMFS is currently working in unified command with Local Incident Commander. Mechanized equipment and  engines  were assigned to fire.  Containment line was constructed around the fire perimeter and mop up/patrol was performed.  Fire has been returned to locals to monitor and

 Fire is 95% contained,  Will monitor

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 7 17:07:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 7 17:07:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The forecast remains on track, and very minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area based on the latest surface observations. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to amplify across the Rockies into the Plains as a mid-level trough remains stationary across the Interior West today. Surface lee-troughing will become established across the Great Basin by afternoon, with modest southwesterly mid-level winds overspreading a deep, dry boundary layer. The net result will be widespread Elevated dry and windy surface conditions across the Great Basin by afternoon peak heating. Modest lee troughing across the southern High Plains may encourage locally dry and breezy conditions over spotty receptive fuels to support a brief, localized wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MT AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible from parts of the Southeast to the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible in Montana from late afternoon through the evening. ...MT and vicinity... The continued presence of mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points banked along the northern Rockies will support another round of scattered thunderstorms off the higher terrain by late afternoon. Amid low-amplitude mid-level ridging from the central Rockies to the Prairie Provinces, a belt of moderate southwesterlies/westerlies atop weak low-level easterlies will yield sufficient bulk shear for a few initial supercells centered on central MT that should consolidate into a couple eastward-moving clusters this evening. With 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE becoming common, large hail will be the primary initial hazard transitioning to predominantly severe wind gusts in time. Overall severe threat will gradually diminish overnight as MLCIN strengthens across eastern MT into the western Dakotas. ...Lower OH Valley to the Southeast... To the southeast of a decaying non-severe MCS over IL, robust boundary-layer heating and very rich low-level moisture will support a broad area of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. This activity should tend to focus along residual outflow boundaries, the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, and a weak cold front sinking south in VA. Relative maxima of large buoyancy will be centered on middle TN and separately along the Carolina coastal plain, while very poor mid-level lapse rates with 700-500 mb values less than 5 C/km will be prevalent from VA north, east of the Appalachians. Deep-tropospheric flow will be quite weak with effective bulk shear largely around 10-15 kt. This will favor extensive disorganized pulse convection with wet microbursts capable of localized damaging winds. It's plausible that weakly organized multicell clustering may occur within mesoscale corridors, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening, which would temporarily increase the wind damage threat. ...Lower MO Valley... Convective outflow in the wake of a decaying MCS has pushed as far south as southwest MO. This boundary should wash out or effectively consolidate north across northern portions of KS/MO as a warm front by early evening with pronounced differential heating across it. Modest low-level warm advection and an upstream MCV drifting east from central NE should aid in scattered thunderstorm development during the evening. With a confined corridor of large buoyancy expected along and just south of the front, coincident with enhanced 0-3 km SRH along and just north of it, an organized multicell cluster may develop and gradually spread east-southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a tornado will also be possible before convection weakens overnight. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/07/2022 Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next 24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA CLARION 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 ...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 113.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 113.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post- tropical cyclone by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of Bonnie was located near 17.3, -113.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...AND FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible today mainly across parts of Montana, and from the lower Missouri Valley into the Carolinas. Damaging winds are possible over all areas, with large hail also expected over Montana. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern in mid/upper levels will continue to feature troughing off the West Coast, mean ridging across the south-central CONUS and Rockies, and west-northwest to northwest flow across much of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Appalachians. The Rockies ridging is expected to amplify through the period, leading to a net westward displacement of the main/anchoring 500-mb high across the southern Plains and toward NM. An embedded shortwave trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern portions of CO/WY and central NM -- should pivot eastward over the central Plains, closely following a smaller, MCV-reinforced shortwave trough now over north-central/west-central KS. Downstream, a series of mostly low-amplitude/mesoscale perturbations will cross the Ohio Valley and Southeast. At the surface 11Z analysis showed a wavy/quasistationary front from a low over the Delmarva Peninsula, across west-central VA, WV, southern IN, and northern MO, with a diffuse segment northwestward to a low over central SD. A cold front was drawn from a low over west-central KS across the TX Panhandle and northeastern NM. The main foci for convection this period should be boundaries south of the front over the eastern outlook area, and north of the front across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains regions. ...MT and vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- mainly over higher terrain of southern/western MT -- and move northeastward while offering the potential for sporadic severe gusts and large hail. Any supercells that survive into the more-suitable moisture profiles of central/northern MT will be capable of significant hail, and depending on storm-scale processes and boundary interactions, a marginal/conditional tornado threat. Large-scale support will be more nebulous today compared to previous days, with net height rises forecast across the region. Convection will be focused largely by heating of elevated terrain, preferentially weakening MLCINH sooner compared to lower elevations in the northern/eastern areas, and secondarily along boundaries left from prior activity. A drier and more deeply mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent (and increasing elevation) across MT, away from a low-level moist/theta-e axis extending from central SD to north-central/northeastern MT. This should contribute to MLCAPE ranging from around 2000-2500 J/kg near that axis to 1000 J/kg over southern/western MT near the main, orographically aided convective initiation zones. Forecast soundings also suggest strong veering of winds with height, though modest low-level wind speeds will keep hodographs and SRH marginal in magnitude. Some of the diurnal activity may aggregate upscale into an evening cluster across eastern MT into the western Dakotas, nearer to the moist axis, with severe gusts being the main concern until convection encounters progressively more-stable boundary layer and stronger MLCINH tonight in the Dakotas. ...KY/TN to Carolinas... Again today, a large swath of the area from the Ohio Valley to Southeast will have thunderstorm potential, with the greatest concentration likely in and near the "slight"/15%-wind outlook area. Multicell clusters and pulse storms will be common and locally numerous, offering the threat of damaging gusts, with a few severe/50+ kt gusts possible. Development should be focused mainly along higher terrain, a surface trough east of the mountains, and especially any number of outflow boundaries south of the synoptic front -- both from prior convection and generated throughout today's event. Strong surface heating in a richly moist air mass (dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to mid 70s F), along with a deep troposphere, will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg (locally higher) over much of the outlook area. Deep-tropospheric flow and vertical shear each will be weak, but oriented such that southeastward-propagating clusters will be favored. Potential should wane after dark as the boundary layer stabilizes from a combination of outflows and nocturnal/diabatic cooling. ...Central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible today over parts of IL as an eastward extension of ongoing activity in northeastern MO, as well as near a diurnally heated/modified version of the trailing outflow boundary across parts of northern MO to eastern KS. Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main concerns, and at least a marginal tornado threat may develop with any supercell that can take advantage of favorable low-level vorticity/SRH along the boundary. In addition to the northern KS MCV, others are evident in west-central to central NE and over northeastern KS/southeastern NE. Mesoscale enhancements to both large-scale lift aloft, and vertical shear, are possible east and south of these features as they move eastward today, while the outflow boundary moves/diffuses somewhat northward. Relatively undisturbed, richly moist boundary-layer air over the mid Mississippi Valley, central/southern MO and eastern KS will be available as inflow to convection developing today, and over IL for convection moving in from MO. By midafternoon, 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and negligible CINH are expected. Weak mid/upper flow over most areas suggests modes could become clustered and messy, but favorable low-level shear may persist along or north of the outflow boundary for support of at least transient supercellular characteristics. Overall coverage/intensity should diminish from late evening into tonight. ..Edwards/Goss.. 07/07/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Heat and weeks of dry weather led officials in Evansville to declare a ban on open burning for the city and also for Vanderburgh County. Between July 1 and July 5, there were 19 grass and brush fires within the city limits, some of them stemming from the use of fireworks. The ban will remain until substantial rain falls. Posey, Spencer and Washington counties also have burn bans. Courier and Press (Evansville, Ind.), July 6, 2022