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Water demand has been high in Hot Springs where rainfall has been less than three-tenths of an inch in the past five weeks. Water production on July 1 peaked at 18.8 million gallons, the highest production day of 2022, a record that has been exceeded eight times in the 11-day period that ended July 10. The Hot Springs Utilities director stated that the capacity of the two treatment plants is about 22 million gallons daily, but if pushed hard, could produce 23 million gallons. The Sentinel-Record (Hot Springs, Ark.), July 20, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 20 17:57:21 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A weakening mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front will move through parts of the Northeast and New England on Thursday. In advance of the front, diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Initial development may occur as early as late morning, with an increase in storm coverage and intensity expected as convection spreads eastward through the afternoon. Effective shear in the 30-40 kt range will support the potential for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most prominent threat, as low-level lapse rates steepen across the region prior to storm arrival. Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear (0-1 km SRH potentially increasing to 100+ m2/s2) will also support a potential for a tornado or two with any sustained supercells. Despite relatively weak midlevel lapse rates, isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any discrete cells. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... Rich low-level moisture and strong diurnal heating will support moderate-to-strong destabilization across much of the Southeast by afternoon. The details of storm development and evolution remain somewhat uncertain, and will depend to some extent on the impact of prior-day convection, which may persist into the early morning across some areas. However, multiple storm clusters are likely to evolve by afternoon. Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather weak, though slightly enhanced midlevel flow on the fringe of the mid/upper-level trough passing to the north will influence the region, and potentially support some modest storm organization. The primary threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts resulting from wet microbursts and/or outflow-driven clusters, though the magnitude of instability may support some isolated hail as well. ..Dean.. 07/20/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
offshore of southern Mexico in several days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by this weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 477 SEVERE TSTM MI OH LE LH 201655Z - 210000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front sweeping across the watch area. Strong winds aloft and hot/humid conditions will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Alpena MI to 50 miles south southwest of Findlay OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... A prominent mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the flow regime across the Four Corners and western US as a shortwave trough and ribbon of stronger flow aloft shift east toward the Great Lakes. Beneath the ridge, weak winds and extreme heat near a stalled front will develop over the southern and central Plains supporting localized fire weather concerns. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies... Weak downslope flow will linger in the dry post-frontal airmass across the northern Great Basin, into WY and the central High Plains today. With mid-level flow decreasing as the ridge builds, sustained surface winds are not expected to reach more than 15-20 mph locally. Despite the weak winds, surface RH below 20% may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions given drought-stressed fuels. The most likely corridors for elevated fire weather concerns will remain near the lee of the higher terrain where downslope flow is forecast to be the strongest. ...Southern Plains... Another day of extreme heat is forecast beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US. 100F+ surface temperatures will support deep mixing heights and surface RH below 25%. Surface winds are expected to remain light, with the exception of locally stronger gusts near the stalled cold front and beneath high-based storms later in the afternoon. While flow will be light, the extreme heat and dry airmass may support a few hours of locally elevated to near critical fire concerns given exceptionally dry fuels. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will also be possible along the stalled front mainly across central OK and north TX this afternoon. While storms are not forecast to be dry given PWAT values of 1.2-1.5 inches, the hot temperatures and deep mixing heights may support a few drier lightning strikes away from the main precipitation cores. With area fuels critically dry, a few lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail and a tornado or two are possible over eastern Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley. ...Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over Upper MI. The associated surface cold front extends across Lake Superior into IL/MO. This front will sweep eastward today into parts of eastern Lower MI and OH this afternoon, where strong heating/destabilization is occurring. Dewpoints in the 70s and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will yield max afternoon MLCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg. Warm temperatures around 700mb should limit the number of storms that form through much of the day, but those storms that develop/sustain will be in an environment of sufficient westerly flow aloft for a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. Later this afternoon and early evening, the cold front will sag southward into KY where a very moist and unstable air mass will reside. Dewpoints are currently in the mid/upper 70s, and afternoon MLCAPE values may exceed 4000 J/kg. Winds aloft will strengthen through the afternoon as the upper trough passes to the north. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms may develop along the front over western/central KY and spread eastward toward WV after dark. Given this solution, have extended the SLGT risk westward and maintained the SLGT across the remainder of KY/WV. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...AL/GA/Carolinas... Visible imagery and surface obs show a region of significant low-level moisture in place from eastern TN into parts of GA/SC/NC. Dewpoints in the 70s and the potential for strong afternoon heating should result in scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are relatively weak, so the main threat would be water-loaded downdrafts with locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/20/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 14:38:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 15:21:05 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201438 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no major changes from the previous advisory forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 120.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 120.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of Estelle was located near 21.2, -120.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

 Crews are making good progress on the fire. Improving containment lines and mopping

Fire restrictions took effect for some federal and state lands in western Nevada. It was forbidden to build, maintain, attend, or use a fire, campfire or stove fire. Some other prohibited activities included smoking, welding, and using explosives, fireworks and tracer rounds. Some of the affected state and federal lands were in Churchill, Lyon, Storey, and Washoe counties. KOLO 8 News (Reno, Nev.), June 29, 2022

New fire restrictions took effect in several Utah counties, prohibiting campfires and open fires, fireworks and other potential dangerous activities. Such restrictions apply on all unincorporated county, state and federally administered public lands in Juab, Millard, Wayne, Piute, Sevier, Sanpete, Box Elder, Weber, Cache, Rich, Morgan, Davis, Salt Lake, Tooele, Utah, Washington, Kane, Garfield, Iron and Beaver counties. Daily Herald (Provo, Utah), July 18, 2022

Heat and drought were reducing hay production in Oklahoma, causing prices to rise. Pastures are crisp, so livestock were being fed hay. KHTT-FM (Muskogee, Okla.), July 19, 2022

 On July 14th, a lightning caused fire was observed as a storm passed over the area. Fire crews responded to the area, but were forced to seek cover in safe locations as lightning delayed initial attack activities. Initial size up estimated the fire at less than one acre. Lightning considerations and fire fighter safety from snags within the Wallow Fire scar are taken into account during suppression tactics decisions, as this fire location is in a rugged and remote area not easily accessible by

Dry conditions persisted in Utah, despite some welcome moisture from monsoon rainfall, leading authorities to opt for restrictions. Color Country, Central Utah and Northern Utah Interagency fire managers enacted new fire restrictions throughout almost all unincorporated county, state and federally managed land across 20 of the state's 29 counties. The restrictions, which took effect on July 18, prohibit all campfires and open fires outside of agency-approved and -maintained campgrounds and home sites. The restrictions also apply to land administered by the Bureau of Land Management in Wasatch and Summit counties. The exceptions are Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Manti La-Sal national forests. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), July 19, 2022