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MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Virginia and central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211638Z - 211845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across central portions of North Carolina and Virginia. Potential for locally damaging winds with these storms may warrant WW consideration. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a relative minimum in cloud cover from portions of central North Carolina northward across central Virginia, south of the northern Virginia cold front and northeast of an MCV crossing west-central North Carolina. With surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across this region, heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. Initial development of storms within this destabilizing environment is occurring near the aforementioned MCV. With time, storm coverage is expected to expand northeastward to the vicinity of the slowly southeastward-advancing cold front. Given moderate westerly flow at low to mid levels, and some increase in the mid-level winds with time, organized storms -- and some later upscale growth into bands -- is expected. Given accompanying/increasing potential for locally damaging wind gusts, WW may become needed over the next hour or so. ..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35398098 36198016 36397956 36997906 37817891 38057885 38867715 38647624 37717624 36577687 35427899 35398098 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast, today through this evening. ...Northeast States... An upper low is tracking across southern Quebec today, with strong westerly flow aloft across all of NY and New England. Hot/humid surface conditions are prevalent across this region with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, and temperatures near 90F. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of over 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop ahead of an approaching cold front, and multiple lines/clusters of storms are expected through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, although the strongest cells may occasionally produce hail. An isolated tornado is also possible. Storms will spread eastward toward the coast by late afternoon/evening, where marine influences should temper convective intensity. ...NC/VA... A weak upper trough is noted in water vapor imagery over WV/western VA. This feature and its associated 30+ kt mid level speed max will track eastward across VA/NC this afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with a few severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main threat, mainly 18-01z. ...GA/AL/MS/LA/AR... A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today from northern LA/southern AR eastward across into MS/AL/GA. Forecast soundings across this region show relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and some dry air aloft, along max-heating MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate considerable coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the SLGT risk area. Winds aloft are weak, which should limit convective organization/maintenance. However, thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable for pulse/multicell storms capable of damaging downburst winds. Thunderstorms will build/propagate southward during the evening before weakening due to diurnal cooling after dark. ..Hart/Broyles.. 07/21/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move onshore across the northwestern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the Four Corners. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase accordingly, supporting locally gusty surface winds across much of the West. Beneath the ridge, very hot temperatures and isolated storms may produce locally elevated fire weather concerns across the southern Plains. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the advancing trough should support an uptick in downslope winds off the higher terrain of the Great Basin and central Rockies this afternoon and evening. While not particularly strong, enhanced momentum transport and local terrain effects will aid occasional gusts to 20 mph. Given afternoon RH values below 15% and very dry fuels across much of the West, some localized fire weather threat will likely develop. The greatest confidence in a few hours of locally elevated conditions will remain across portions of southern OR, ID, into central WY. Elsewhere across the West, periodic dry and gusty conditions will be possible, but sustained elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. ...Southern Plains... Warm temperatures and low surface RH are again forecast beneath the strong upper ridge. Winds are forecast to be weak but may occasionally reach near 15 mph through the afternoon. These conditions may contribute to locally elevated fire weather concerns given drought-stricken fuels. The strong daytime heating will also support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains. While not dry given PWAT values of 1.8 inches, occasional lightning strikes may result in ignitions of highly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On July 10, 2022, at approximately 4:50 pm, the Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to the Nethery Road Fire in Kimble County East of US Hwy 377 S and SSE of Junction and worked in unified command with the local fire department. The fire had burned very intensely through a dense juniper component and fire crews experienced many access issues due to terrain. Aviation was utilized in suppression of the fire making retardant and water drops. The fire is 3,262 acres at 100% contained. All state resources have been released from the fire and has transitioned back to the local unit. This will be the final update for this

 Fire started on July 18, 2022 and is near Meridian, Bosque County Texas. Texas A&M Forest Service has been requested to assistance and worked in unified command with the local fire department.  Heavy equipment was quickly engaged constructing line around the fire edge, along with fire engines supporting suppression efforts. In total, one abandoned home and three outbuildings were lost. 1 home was threatened and saved. The fire had moved NNE from FM 1991 but was stopped south of Hwy 22. The fire was mapped at 160 acres and is now 100% contained. This will be the Final update for this incident.Weather-Heat Advisory in effect through Tuesday.  Southerly wind 10-15 mph, wind direction may vary from SE to SW. wind may be 10-20 mph overnight with possible gusts to 30

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0479 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 479 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY RI VT CW 211540Z - 220000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Maine New Hampshire Eastern New York Northern Rhode Island Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple waves and clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to spread across New York and much of New England this afternoon. Strong winds aloft and hot/humid conditions will result in a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 165 miles north northeast of Berlin NH to 40 miles south southwest of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:41:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211441 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today. Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is in line with the new track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Estelle Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 ...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 125.5W ABOUT 995 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Estelle was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Estelle is expected to weaken further and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of Estelle was located near 22.7, -125.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

At 4:30pm Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance from fire departments in Kaufman County for assistance with a grass fire in thick fuels. Working together in Unified Command, local and Texas A&M Forest Service resources are working to stop this fire.A variety of aerial and ground resources are working to stop the forwards process of this fire, including planes, helicopters, dozers, and engines. Dozers are creating lines around the fire free of plant material, or fuel, while the aircraft have been dropping water to slow down the fire.Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue through the week with little to no chance of reprieve. Residents should stay clear of the area to ensure that firefighters can work safely. When there is a lot of aircraft flying in an area, drones can cause some major problems. When drones are identified on a fire, all air operations has to cease until the drone is removed. Please remember, if you fly we

On the afternoon of July 20, 2022, a wildfire started approximately 2 miles East of the Wichita Falls Regional Airport. Church Rd Fire is burning in a mixture of short grass and thick mesquite.  Friberg-Cooper Volunteer Fire Department requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service. Dozers are constructing containment lines on both flanks, and engines are at the threat of conducting structure protection. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with a local incident commander. There are no longer any threats to any structures and no road

 The Minto Lakes Fire (#349) started on June 21st and is a lightning caused fire. The fire is burning between Washington Creek and the Chatanika River. The Murphy Dome Road boat launch is being used as an access point to transport and support firefighters.

Local leaders from northwest Iowa met with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to talk about efforts toward developing a statewide drought preparedness plan. The DNR is holding four meetings to collect ideas and input on what the drought preparedness plan ought to include. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and the Iowa Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management were also contributing to the response plan. Siouxland News (North Sioux City, S.D.), July 20, 2022

The lack of rain left grass in the hayfield behind schedule. Some farmers were giving livestock hay, while others benefited from rain and were able to eke by on pasture grass. A farmer in the Addison area sold three hundred square hay bales earlier this year, but now, with grass not growing well, he regretted the sale. North West Alabamian (Haleyville, Ala.), July 20, 2022