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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes regions. ...Synopsis... A compact upper wave is evident in mid-morning water vapor imagery translating eastward across North Dakota. This feature will continue east into the Great Lakes region through 12 UTC Wednesday, and will be the focus for severe weather potential for today. A weakening upper disturbance over the eastern U.S. will continue to lift northeast into the western Atlantic, but residual influences from this wave will support lower severe probabilities across the Northeast and Southeast states this afternoon. Across the Southwest, hot and dry conditions prevail under a Four Corners ridge, though widespread monsoonal moisture will continue to support scattered thunderstorm chances with the potential for damaging downbursts for a couple of regions. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Surface analysis reveals a deepening surface low across the northern Red River Valley of the North with a cold front advancing east across the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of this front, temperatures are warming into the low 80s with widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. While this air mass is undergoing some destabilization, strong capping sampled in the 12 UTC ABR and MPX soundings will likely limit the potential for open warm sector convection. Thunderstorm development is more likely along the diffuse warm frontal zone that is currently draped across northern MN into western WI and where capping diminishes with eastward extent (per the 12 UTC INL and APX soundings). Evidence of strong lift is already evident across northern MN in satellite imagery with thunderstorm initiation likely by late afternoon as lingering inhibition is minimized. Deep-layer flow largely orthogonal to the boundary combined with strong ascent should support semi-discrete storm modes posing primarily a severe hail/wind risk. Storms along the front will continue eastward towards northern lower MI and the U.P. of MI overnight. While convection may become elevated due to diurnal cooling, forecast soundings show adequate MUCAPE and effective shear to maintain a hail, and perhaps damaging wind, threat. ...Northeast... Morning soundings across the region show poor mid-level lapse rates with evidence of low/mid-level stability evident in visible satellite imagery. However, upstream soundings from southeast Canada reveal much colder temperatures aloft, which should advect east through the day as the upper-level low shifts east/northeast. These cooling temperatures, combined with diurnal insolation and a nearly uni-directional wind profile featuring 30-40 knot winds will support a conditionally favorable environment for organized severe storms. While this favorable environment is noted, storm coverage remains uncertain. Thunderstorm development is possible by mid/late afternoon as a weak surface trough, currently just northwest of the international border, moves across the region. However, latest guidance continues to show sparse storm coverage, likely owing to the weak forcing for ascent. Recent downward convective trends of ongoing storms north of ME also limits confidence in storm coverage. Consequently, the potential for a more widespread severe threat appears too limited for a categorical upgrade. ...Southeast... The southern extension of the East Coast upper trough will continue to drift east towards the Atlantic Coast through the day. This will continue to provide lift across far eastern AL, GA, and the Carolinas over an air mass that is currently destabilizing under partly cloudy skies (with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s with rich low-level moisture). The combination of adequate buoyancy, sufficient lift, and modest upper-level flow should support a few strong to severe storms with a predominantly damaging wind risk (though sporadic severe hail is possible with the stronger updrafts). ...Southern High Plains... A deep, dry boundary layer are noted across the southern High Plains on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. By late afternoon, adequate mid-level moisture should support sufficient buoyancy for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. With inverted-V signatures noted in forecast soundings and a modest convective signal in most CAM guidance, the potential for strong to severe downburst winds appears sufficient to introduce wind probabilities. ...Southeast Arizona... A weak surface low over southern AZ is noted in morning surface obs. This feature should maintain weak south to southwesterly flow across southeast AZ through the day under modest easterly flow aloft. This should support 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear through the day, which will aid in storm organization as convection develops off the terrain of the Mongolon Rim and western Gila region this afternoon. Similar to the southern High Plains, inverted-V low-level profiles are noted in forecast soundings, which, when combined with the slightly sheared environment, should support a few stronger storms with severe wind potential. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2022 Read more

 The fire is burning in rugged terrain near Deer Lake Canyon, a steep canyon that runs into Chevelon Canyon. Due to the inaccessibility of the current fire location, firefighters are using an indirect strategy utilizing existing roads and favorable terrain to support a strategy of full suppression. Tactical firing operations will continue as weather conditions allow. Drones may also be utilized in these

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

A Fire Prevention Order was put in place on July 13th restrict public entry, recreation and unnecessary traffic near the fire.  See full Order and News Release in Closures section.   Settlement Canyon is open to Camp Wapiti.  A pre-evacuation order remains in place for Ophir Canyon Residents. The fire is located 5 miles south of Tooele and 1 mile east of Stockton, Utah.   It is burning east of the Salt Lake Valley, 12 miles southwest of Herriman, and 13 miles northwest of Eagle Mountain. It is burning in steep, rugged terrain through timber, brush, tall grass, and a mix of conifer and juniper. The fire started on the afternoon of July 9, 2022, and was determined to be human-caused. The following were damaged: Stockton water treatment plant which included propane tanks, solar panels, and generator, multiple flatbed trailers, sheds, and two con-ex boxes. Great Basin Team 5 will turn the Jacob City Fire over to a local Type 4 team at 6 pm today. 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 14:39:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of Estelle was located near 19.0, -115.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Acres: 200Containment: 90%Cause: Unknown On Sunday, July 17th 2022 at 11:40 am, Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to investigate a large smoke column in Trinity County, TX Southeast of the town of Lovelady, TX. Firefighters arrived on scene to find moderate to high fire activity burning in a young pine plantation threatening 5 homes and multiple outbuildings. Air assists including 3 small engine air tankers and 1 type I helicopter were  successful in performing water drops on highly active portions of the fire, assisting dozer crews in increasing containment. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with Trinity, Groveton, Pennington, Friday, and Lovelady Volunteer Fire

Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is seeking a drought disaster declaration for the entire state. He mentions the U.S. Drought Monitor’s July 14 release and the expected above average temperatures and little chance of precipitation over the next eight to 14 days. Farmers were not seeing the hay growth that they need for their livestock. Row crops needed irrigation, adding to farmers’ costs and stressing irrigation equipment. The fire danger was also high with 53 of the state’s 75 counties enacting burn bans. A military exercise sparked a wildfire that burned 20 acres in Sebastian County. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), July 18, 2022

 Resources from Texas A&M Forest Service are responding to a wildfire in northern Erath County. Crews are working in Unified command with Erath County fire department. There are multiple structures threatened and they are being protected at this time. Aircraft, dozers, engines are all working to protect these structures and construct line around the perimeter of the fire. With very hot conditions and low humidity much of the area is extremely dry and is primed for fire starts. Any fires that do start will likely grow quickly and make dangerous conditions for first

 Fire started on July 18, 2022 and is located at 750 Hempel Drive, Copperas Cove, Coryell County, Texas.   Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) has been requested to assistance.  Dozers and engines are assigned to the fire.  TAMFS is working in unified command with local Incident Command.  1 home reported lost, 2 homes received minor to minimal damage, 2 vehicles lost, 1 horse trailer lost. Forward progression has been stopped.  Dozers are constructing containment lines and engines are working directly on the fire. Weather-Heat Advisory in effect through Tuesday.  Southerly winds8-10 mph, relative humidity near

 Crews have completed mop up.  Fire is 100% contained.  Locals to

The 5,989-acre Becky Peak Fire in the Schell Creek Range, about 50 miles north of Ely, Nev., is 100-percent contained. Firefighters are wrapping up rehab and demobilizing resources for deployment elsewhere. Firefighters will continue to patrol the fire area for the next several days. The human-caused fire was first reported shortly before 11 a.m., Saturday, July

The Jellison Fire was reported the evening of July 12. Fire is burning in steep, hard-to-access terrain on the east end of the Little Belt Mountains approximately 1.5 miles north of Jellison Place Campground.  As of July 18, the fire is in patrol status and 100%

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 473 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 181745Z - 190200Z
0-190200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut District Of Columbia Northern Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a corridor from northern Virginia into southeast New York. The stronger cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles south southeast of Elkins WV to 25 miles east of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST ND...NORTHERN MN...WESTERN UPPER MI...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night over portions of the Upper Midwest into parts of Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. In conjunction with this trough, a surface low will deepen and move from northern MN toward Lake Superior, as an attendant cold front sweeps through the northern and central Great Plains. Downstream, a an upper trough will gradually move eastward across the Northeast and New England, while a weaker upper trough will move from the southern Appalachians toward the Carolinas. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will persist from the Southwest into the southern Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... One or more storm clusters may be ongoing Tuesday morning from northeast ND into northern MN, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and/or damaging wind early in the forecast period. This convection will likely leave a remnant outflow boundary somewhere over northern MN by late morning into the afternoon. Moderate destabilization is expected during the afternoon along/south of any outflow boundary and along/east of the cold front. Rather strong midlevel flow associated with the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe thunderstorm environment across the region by mid/late afternoon. Despite having a seasonably strong synoptic system moving into the region, 12Z guidance continues to be relatively muted in terms of robust storm development along the cold front through much of the day, likely due to the presence of an initially strong capping inversion across the warm sector, and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lag behind the front. Redevelopment of storms during the afternoon appears most likely near/north of the remnant outflow boundary across northern MN, with more isolated development possible southward along the cold front into parts of WI and upper MI by early evening. The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Northern New England... A notable midlevel shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough is forecast to move across northern New England during the day on Tuesday. Low-level flow will become veered as a surface low departs the region during the morning, but residual low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in conjunction with peak heating. Midlevel drying and weak surface convergence may limit storm coverage across the region, but moderate midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will support the potential for isolated cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Southeast CO into the southern High Plains... Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of central/southern CO and northern NM during the afternoon. As this convection spreads into the increasingly hot lower elevations, strong to locally severe outflow gusts will be possible. Isolated high-based storms with gusty winds also cannot be ruled out near a weak front across the OK/TX Panhandles, though this scenario remains too uncertain for wind probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 07/18/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
Baja California.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico late this week.
Some slow development is possible after that time while the system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci