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Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261445 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

 Crews responded to the Escalera Fire at about 4pm on Sunday, July 24. The estimated size of the fire was 227 acres. The fire is currently 92% contained. The fire's cause was a hold over lightning strike. Dozers began constructing line around the fire's perimeter about 5pm with engine assistance. No structures were threatened by the fire. 23 fire personnel were on scene. Aerial resources assisted crews with water and retardant

The Cat Fire began at about 7:15pm in Clay County, Texas. By 8:30pm, the fire had grown to about 60 acres. The fire threatened eight structures  initially, however, these structures are not currently threatened. 29 fire personnel were initially assigned to the fire. Dozers are constructing line along the fire's perimeter. Engines are working to contain the fire east of a creek bed on the fire's west flank.  Aerial resources assisted ground crews with retardant drops in the fire area. The fire is burning in a heavily wooded area with thick mesquite and long

Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to a fire approximately 9 miles north of Huntsville, Texas in Walker County. The Nelson Creek Fire was reported on July 18, 2022, at 11:46 am.The fire is at 1,896 acres due to GPS mapping and 100% containment. No evacuations or road closures occurred on this fire. All state resources have been released and the fire has been turned back to the local unit. Aerial detection flights are scheduled in the region this week and will monitor for any potential restarts. Pending any significant changes in fire activity, this will be the last update for this

Residents of Bryan were asked to voluntarily conserve water as the city enacts Stage 1 of the drought contingency plan. The city tweeted that ongoing drought, elevated temperatures and excessive water line breaks were reasons for the conservation request. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), July 25, 2022

RCH Water received notice from the city of Rockwall about water supply concerns on July 11, and water customers in Royse City and McLendon-Chisholm were told to conserve water. Excessive water use was outpacing supply. Outdoor watering was prohibited on July 12. On July 13, water customers found that they had no water from the tap. FOX 4 News (Dallas, Texas), July 13, 2022

Nebraska has been in drought for all of 2022, while a flash drought developed in Missouri in recent weeks. Nebraska cow-calf producers were employing various drought management practices, such as watching grazing levels closely to avoid overgrazing, which will harm pasture grass the following year. Rotating livestock among pastures during drought is also important. With less forage available, and tight hay supplies, many southwest Nebraska producers were considering salvaging dryland corn or milo for forage because these crops will not likely make grain. Producers need to check nitrate levels to make sure the forage is safe to feed to cattle. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), July 25, 2022

An emergency water ban was in effect for Pembroke due to low well levels, low water pressure and unsafe conditions as conditions in Massachusetts ranged from abnormally dry to severe drought. Residents were told to immediately stop using unnecessary water that would be needed in the event of an emergency. Tap water was discolored. "There is a strain on the reserve levels in the tanks and it is seriously impacting the town’s ability to provide water and the pressure required to drive it now and in the event of an emergency," according to town officials. WCVB-TV ABC 5 Boston (Mass.), July 25, 2022

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0503 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 503 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 251745Z - 260200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will further develop and intensify initially near/just of the mountains, and subsequently spread eastward toward the I-95 corridor through late afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Trenton NJ to 40 miles west of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind
data also indicates the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. This low pressure area is
forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted with a small area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some slight additional development with this
system is possible over the next day or two before it is forecast to
interact and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system located to
its east later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the mid-Atlantic region west to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. A few damaging wind gusts locally will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... South of a pair of central and eastern Canada upper lows, moderate cyclonic flow will prevail Tuesday from the north-central U.S. eastward across the Northeast. Farther south, weak flow aloft will prevail. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain largely in place from the Mid-Atlantic region westward to the central High Plains through the period. ...Mid Mississippi Valley region eastward to the Virginia and North Carolina Coastal area... A nearly stationary surface front is forecast to remain in place from Virginia to Missouri on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary at the start of the period, from the Mid-Mississippi to Mid-Ohio Valleys, where a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out. During the day, heating/destabilization along the boundary in areas less affected by ongoing precipitation/cloud cover will yield an expansion in convective coverage, with storms eventually developing/spreading eastward with time to cover much of the MRGL risk area. With moderate/roughly unidirectional westerly flow aloft progged atop the front, a few stronger wind gusts appear likely -- particularly if storms can evolve locally into an eastward-moving cluster or two. At this time, confidence is too low to narrow down an area of possibly greater severe potential/coverage, so will maintain broad MRGL risk from southeastern Missouri eastward to coastal Virginia and North Carolina. ..Goss.. 07/25/2022 Read more

MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251716Z - 251915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may intensify and support isolated damaging winds through the afternoon hours across western to central North Carolina and southern Virginia. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A broad cluster of thunderstorms has developed within the southern Appalachians and along a lee trough axis across western VA/NV over the past couple of hours. This activity has largely remained disorganized, likely due to weak flow observed in the KFCX, KMRX, and KRAX VWPs. However, increasing cloud-top heights and cooling cloud-top temperatures in a few cells hint at gradual intensification over the past 30-60 minutes. This trend will continue through the afternoon as warming temperatures, coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, boosts MLCAPE values to near 2000-2500 J/kg with minimal inhibition. A few strong to severe storms are possible and may exhibit periods of semi-organized outflow. However, deep-layer flow is expected to remain meager across the region as the synoptic mid-level wave passes well to the north. This will limit the potential for widespread organized severe weather and likely mitigates the need for a watch, though isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 35868317 36658153 37188073 37368009 37247925 36947824 36377821 35567854 35117955 35118119 35158233 35388312 35868317 Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0502 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI CW 251705Z - 260000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern New York Far Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon through early evening along/ahead of a cold front. This scenario is supported by moderately strong winds through a deep layer a moist/moderately unstable air mass, although some lingering cloud cover may temper destabilization somewhat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Bridgeport CT to 85 miles north northeast of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Areas affected...Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251702Z - 251900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage from central Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorms will primarily pose a damaging wind threat, and will likely require a watch. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery reveals several convective cells developing along the WV/VA/MD border ahead of an approaching cold front and along a weak lee trough axis. Increasing lightning counts and cloud top heights have been noted with some of the deeper convection over the past 20 minutes, indicative of gradual intensification. These storms are forecast to migrate east into central/northern VA during the 17-19 UTC period, and will likely undergo further organization/intensification as they encounter an air mass featuring seasonally rich low-level moisture (which is supporting upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear (as estimated from recent ACARs soundings from the Washington D.C. area and recent KLWX and KDIX VWP obs). Furthermore, temperatures rising into the low 90s will support steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and winds near the top of the boundary layer are forecast to increase to 25-35 mph by mid/late afternoon, both of which should foster the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. A watch will likely be needed in the next 30-90 minutes as thunderstorm coverage and intensity slowly increase. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37837661 37237799 37377920 37757965 38367938 39077873 39667761 40127593 40067499 39577446 38397556 37837661 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... A few strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur this afternoon within a moist/unstable environment near the front across southern Missouri, but will not adjust/reintroduce severe probabilities at this time given lingering forecast uncertainties and relatively low/isolated perceived severe potential overall. A somewhat higher probability/coverage of storms is expected tonight and farther north from northeast Kansas across northern Missouri into western/south-central Illinois. This will be as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies and warm advection/isentropic ascent increases coincident with the elevated frontal surface. A few organized and potentially severe storms may occur, particularly early in the convective cycle before a more front-parallel linear configuration evolves. That said, potential upscale growth into an MCS could eventually occur. ...Central/northern High Plains... A conditional and/or fairly localized severe potential (hail/wind) is evident in this region this afternoon into this evening, with a deeply mixed diurnal boundary layer, steep low/middle-level lapse rates, and pockets of favorable/residual moisture all expected to support a plume of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from parts of western South Dakota into western Nebraska. Have introduced low severe probabilities for parts of this region where a few severe storms appear a bit more probable. Any convection that does develop will be in an environment of modest-magnitude but strongly veering low-level winds with height, leading to long hodographs and around 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/25/2022 Read more

 Fire is located 40 miles northwest of Wells, NV. Wildcat Fire is burning in brush and grass. Fire behavior has moderated and observed behavior is minimal with creeping and smoldering. Crews are continuing with mop up and suppression

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will remain in place across the northern CONUS, while a compact shortwave trough crosses the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As moderate midlevel flow accompanying the shortwave trough overspreads a diurnally deepening boundary layer over southern WY, a corridor of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will be possible amid 10-15 percent RH. However, recent light to moderate rainfall over the area and only marginally elevated conditions cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Farther south over parts of the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds will develop in response to a weak surface low near the OK Panhandle. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH, could result in locally elevated conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. With that said, these conditions look too marginal/spotty for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Mountain Fire was started by lightning on Wednesday July 20, 2022, near the top of Sitgreaves Mountain, on the Wiliams Ranger District.  Firefighters were on scene on Thursday July 21, but found numerous hazards around the fire including lightning, steep slopes, numerous downed logs covering the ground in many areas, and numerous standing dead trees.  After much conversation, a decision was made to hold off on aggressive attack of the fire at that time, but instead to wait and see what the monsoon storms in the area would do to the fire.  Since that day, the fire has grown slowly, had several rain showers on it, and is consuming dead and downed fuel on the ground.  Firefighters from the Kaibab National Forest are keeping a close eye on this fire every day, monitoring and mapping fire spread, and watching the weather which includes increased chances of rain in the last full week of