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Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 123.0W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.0 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Georgette was located near 15.1, -123.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 291436 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 15(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 77 17(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 5 32(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 64 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 51(61) 24(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 31(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 291436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and a general northwestward motion should then continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Frank is expected to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Frank was located near 14.2, -113.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 291436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

The USDA Forest Service and the Arkansas Forestry Division have been on high alert for wildfire outbreaks, due to heat and the lack of rain. Dozens of small blazes have been quickly extinguished in recent weeks. KUAF-FM 91.3 Public Radio (Fayetteville, Ark.), July 22, 2022

Heat and drought in Craighead County forced farmers to irrigate, driving up the cost of producing the crops. Irrigation cannot fully make up for the early start to the heat and the lack of rain. Some crops were smaller than they ought to be despite the irrigation. Jonesboro Sun (Ark.), July 27, 2022

Drought, low snowfall during the winter and the usual influx of summer visitors forced the town of Stonington to purchase 64,000 gallons of water to keep its wells full. Last year was the first time that the community needed to purchase additional water as its aquifer had provided enough water. In the offseason, the town’s wells usually produce about 20,000 gallons of water per day. But that has increased to about 55,000 gallons this summer, or about 16,000 more gallons a day than in July 2020. Water conservation is encouraged. Bangor Daily News (Maine), July 27, 2022

Hay, corn, oats and rye in Waldo County were stunted and dry as the area was in moderate drought. Because the area typically receives enough rain, farmers do not have ponds or equipment for irrigation when the weather turns dry. The dry conditions were stressing farmers, too, causing some to consider irrigation equipment. One farmer used a flatbed truck to haul water in 1,200 gallon tanks to irrigate. Lawns were brown and brittle, and gardens were dry for lack of rain. Bangor Daily News (Maine), July 28, 2022

Drought increased the number of water line breaks in Corpus Christi from an average of three per day under normal circumstances to about thirty daily, due to drought, which causes the soil to shift and contract. Supply chain issues were also making it harder to get the materials needed to fix the water lines, according to the city manager, who noted that larger cities, like Houston, San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth, were also having the same problem. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), July 26, 2022

Pastures in Coffee County have dried up, and the beef cattle have eaten them down, but the pastures have not regrown as they normally would. Marietta Daily Journal (Ga.), July 28, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur from the Ozarks/Mid-South to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, as well as over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over western Quebec early Friday morning. This cyclone is expected to weaken throughout the period, devolving into an open wave while also becoming more progressive. By early Saturday morning, this upper trough will have moved into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate quickly through the base of this large cyclone/trough, moving from the Upper Midwest across the Upper and Lower Great Lakes regions and through the Northeast. Farther west, an upper ridge covering much of the West Coast will remain centered over northern CA, while subtropical ridging persists from the southern Plains through the Southeast. A frontal zone is expected to extend from east-central NM east-northeastward into the Upper OH Valley early Friday morning. Some modest southward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated as it is reinforced by a secondary surge of dry, continental across the air from the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley throughout the day. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid-South/TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic... Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will destabilize the air mass in the vicinity of the frontal zone draped across the region. Convergence along this boundary, augmented by modest large-scale forcing for ascent as well as localized areas of lift near any convectively enhanced vorticity maximums, should result in afternoon thunderstorm development. Much of this development should be south of the stronger mid-level flow, leading to an outflow-dominant multicellular mode. Some loosely organized bowing line segments are possible. The only exception is across central/northern VA and adjacent MD and DE. In this region, thunderstorms should be coincident with at least modest mid-level flow. This increased mid-level flow will correspond with increasing dewpoints/buoyancy, increasing the chance for organized storms capable of strong wind gusts. As a result, wind probabilities were increased to 15%. ...Southern High Plains... Overnight showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night into Friday morning will likely reinforce the frontal zone expected to extend from east-central NM through central OK. This showers and thunderstorms should also reduce mid-level lapse rates, increase cloudiness, and reduce overall buoyancy across areas north of the front. Strong diurnal heating is still anticipated south of the front, resulting in deep boundary layer mixing as well as air mass destabilization. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated over this region. High-based character of these storms coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will result in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. Adjustments to this risk area may be required in later outlook based on the position of the front. ..Mosier.. 07/28/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1606 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Areas affected...Central/eastern/northern NY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505... Valid 281717Z - 281915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505 continues. SUMMARY...An evolving cluster across central NY should continue to pose a threat for two-three west/east-oriented swaths of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Deepest updrafts are located on both the northern and southern flanks of an emerging cluster from the Finger Lakes to the Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of this activity as surface temperatures have broadly warmed through the upper 70s to mid 80s. The BUF VWP has consistently sampled 40-kt westerlies as low as 2-km AGL in the wake of the cluster, while strong mid/upper-level speed shear evident in TYX will foster organization potential, including a threat for small hail. With a 52 mph gust measured at 1635Z at the Penn Yan NY Mesonet site, expect a threat for 45-60 mph gusts within the deepest cells and small bowing segments as they spread towards eastern NY. ..Grams.. 07/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 45017483 44997404 44977353 44877321 44147320 42777385 42507436 42517531 42577611 42907648 44167602 44707552 45017483 Read more

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281700Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours, and may pose a damaging wind risk. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity trends over the past hour reveal a broad MCV moving eastward across central Missouri. Lift ahead of this feature is promoting increasing cloud cover over the region. However, breaks in the clouds across southeast MO to the lower-OH River Valley have allowed for some diurnal destabilization. Temperatures rising into the mid 80s, coupled with low 70s dewpoints, are fostering MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Further evidence of this trend is noted in visible imagery as shallow convective cumulus, as well as a few deeper towers with occasional lightning, continue to increase in coverage. Regional VWPs from western MO are sampling 30-40 knot winds in the 5-7 km layer in the vicinity of the MCV, which is supporting stronger deep-layer shear than reflected in recent mesoanalyses. Consequently, the combination of improving thermodynamics and adequate kinematics may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms intensifying ahead of the MCV or developing along a diffuse outflow boundary and/or the southward-moving cold front will likely consolidate into loosely organized clusters, though one or two semi-consolidated lines appear possible, as hinted by a few hi-res solutions. While damaging winds appear probable, confidence in the coverage of strong/severe convection remains limited given the marginal thermodynamic profiles and increasing cloud cover (which should act to slow further destabilization). ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37639263 38489260 38679191 38928986 38858847 38438782 37588774 36868805 36788938 36909072 37109203 37639263 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS, while a belt of modest midlevel northwesterly flow overspreads the northern Rockies. This large-scale pattern will result in elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of southeast OR, northern NV, and southwest ID -- where breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH. In addition, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Rockies, and critically dry fuels over this area will support isolated lightning-induced ignitions away from any precipitation cores. An isolated storm or two will also be possible along the Cascades in northern CA into southern OR, though confidence in storm development is currently too low for highlights here. Farther north along/east of the Cascades in WA, breezy terrain-enhanced surface winds and 10-15 percent RH could lead to locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. However, these conditions should generally be confined to terrain-favored areas and appear too localized for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Occasional damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are expected across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. Isolated wind damage will also be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ozarks, and marginally severe wind/hail may occur near the Front Range in Colorado and across the High Plains. ...Northeast States... Initially isolated severe storms have already developed this morning across western New York, and this risk should further increase/develop eastward toward eastern New York and much of western New England this afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1604. A deep mid-level low over northern Ontario will continue generally eastward toward northwest Quebec through tonight, with a base-embedded mid/high-level speed max (50-60 kt at 500 mb) over the Great Lakes transitioning east-northeastward. A related cold front will also move eastward with further thunderstorm development expected along/ahead of the front in addition to near a prefrontal trough across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southeast New York vicinity. Mid-level lapse rates were observed to be weak in 12z observed upper-air data, but cloud breaks and a general prevalence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints will support upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as additional heating occurs. The aforementioned speed max and tendency for strengthening winds aloft will maintain long and relatively straight hodographs with 40-50 kt effective shear. This will yield the possibility of a few supercells aside from more prevalent clusters/linear segments, with damage as the most common hazard. The overall severe risk should tend to diminish this evening as storms encounter a narrower warm sector and more marginally unstable air mass across Maine. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ozarks this afternoon... Have adjusted severe wind probabilities a bit northward near the Midwest synoptic front where severe-adequate destabilization may occur. Farther south, widely scattered thunderstorms should also form in the zone of differential heating, and the strongest storms could produce isolated wind damage with downbursts. Wind profiles will be relatively weak in the low-mid levels along the southern periphery of the early clouds/convection from northern Arkansas/southern Missouri to western Tennessee. However, strong surface heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the clouds could support a few multicell storms/clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts near and just after peak heating. ...Eastern Colorado and central/southern High Plains... Outflow with overnight convection has moved southwestward to the Front Range in Colorado. Some clouds will linger across the eastern Plains of Colorado, and vertical shear will be weaker with less steep mid-level lapse rates compared to Wednesday afternoon. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F, pockets of surface heating, and low-level upslope flow should support the development of scattered thunderstorm clusters this afternoon near the Front Range. The strongest storms will pose a threat for marginally severe hail and isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/28/2022 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0505 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more