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Grasshoppers in Bowman County in southwestern North Dakota were ravaging crops and completely devoured a field of barley to the ground. Hay production was down, yielding just 53 bales from a field that usually produces 1,500 to 3,000 bales. A sheep herd of 150 animals was sold down to just 38 for lack of feed. The situation was very similar to the west in Wibaux, Montana, concerning the barley and grasshoppers. The grasshoppers are moving eastward, and feeding activity usually peaks in August. Your News Leader (Bismarck, N.D.), July 29, 2021

Idaho farmers growing irrigated barley still expect yield reduction of 10% to 20%, while dryland growers were expecting losses of 50%. Extreme heat reduced grain fill and increased protein. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), Aug 3, 2021 Barley yields and total production will be lower in Idaho, compared with 2020, due to drought and early heat. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts the harvest to have an average yield of 81 bushels per acre, for total barley production of 37.3 million bushels. The Idaho Barley Commission puts the harvest at 39 to 46 million bushels with an average yield of 85 to 95 bpa. Roughly 80% of the state’s barley is produced with irrigation and most farmers have enough water to finish the crop. Quality and yield are expected to be affect by the heat. Post Register (Idaho Falls, Idaho), July 27, 2021

The Elbow Creek Fire, located approximately 17 miles northwest of Wallowa, is burning on both sides of the Grande Ronde River and is on or threatening Umatilla National Forest lands, Wallowa-Whitman National Forest lands, Vale District Bureau of Land Management lands and Oregon Department of Forestry protected lands. The fire was reported on Thursday, July 15 and is burning in grass and

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:31:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:31:46 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121431 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A little bit of convection continues to persist about 200 n mi to the southwest of Kevin's center, but at that distance, it is not considered organized in relation to the cyclone. In fact, Kevin has had this structure for a good 18 hours or so, and it has therefore degenerated into a remnant low. Based on last evening's ASCAT passes, it is assumed that winds as high as 30 kt are still occurring within the circulation. However, the center will be moving over waters colder than 23 degrees Celsius very soon, so a gradual decrease in the winds is expected over the next couple of days. Dissipation of the remnant low in expected in about 3 days. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/12 kt. The remnant low is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the United States and Mexico, which should cause a west-northwestward or northwestward motion until dissipation. There is very little spread in the track guidance, and this last NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. This is the last advisory being issued for Kevin. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121430 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121430 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 120.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121430 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 120.6W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 120.6 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are reaching the west coast of Baja California Sur but will gradually subside today. However, another round of swells is expected to reach southern portions of Baja California Sur on Friday from Linda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Kevin was located near 23.2, -120.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 12 13:00:03 UTC 2021.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 12 13:00:03 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts will be possible today in parts of a long corridor from the central Plains to the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over Hudson Bay and adjoining parts of ON/MB -- is expected to shift northeastward across the bay during the period. Though the primary low aloft will be moving away from the Great Lakes region, a tight fetch of cyclonic flow will be maintained, as a series of shortwave troughs and related vorticity maxima pivot southeastward to eastward from central Canada across the Lake Superior region. South of the strongest mid/upper flow belt, a series of weaker perturbations (some convectively generated/enhanced) will traverse the westerlies from the central Plains across the southern Great Lakes States and Ohio Valley. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak cold front across the neck of ON and Lake Huron, becoming diffuse behind a large area of convective outflow over Lower MI, Lake Michigan and northern IL. The frontal zone appeared quasistationary over southern IA, southeastern NE and northern to southwestern KS. This boundary will become more diffuse today, while a stronger cold front moves southeastward into the same general areas. The latter front was drawn from northern ON across western Lake Superior, southeastern SD, the NE Panhandle and eastern WY. By 00Z, this cold front should reach eastern Upper MI, southern WI, the IA/MO border, northern KS, and northeastern CO. ...Northeastern CONUS to central Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms in clusters are ongoing from parts of the lower Great Lakes across northern IN to central IL. While isolated strong-severe gusts cannot be ruled out from water-loaded downdrafts embedded in this activity, the better-organized potential should be later today within the broader corridor, where two most-probable relative concentrations of convection (and severe-gust potential) still are apparent: parts of the lower Great Lakes/northeast and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valley region, in and near where the 15%-wind probabilities are drawn However, guidance has been erratic in specifics of convective evolution and upscale growth suitable for organized clustering of potential, as probably should be expected in a largely prefrontal regime with antecedent convection and outflow features involved. As such, mesoscale observational/parametric trends and updated convection-allowing guidance likely will inform reshaping and possibly relocation of these threat areas through the day. Foci for convection will include a prefrontal trough in the Northeast, as well as the cold front in the central Plains to IA/MO area, and outflow/differential-heating boundaries from morning activity. The morning surface map shows dew points from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F from northern New England to northern KS, representing the rich low-level moisture that should remain in the preconvective warm sector through the day. PW of 1.5-2.5 inches is common, per GPS-based readings, RAOB samples and RAP analyses. In tandem with diabatic surface heating, this will help to offset modest lapse rates and/or stable layers aloft in the Great Lakes/Northeast regions, and augment steeper lapse rates over the IA/MO/KS/NE parts of the corridor. Resulting peak MLCAPE (away from areas of convection and dense cloud cover, of course) should range from about 1500-2500 J/kg in the Northeast to 3000-4000 J/kg from northern IL to the eastern KS/NE border. Strongest mid/upper winds should remain north of the outlook belt. As a result, deep shear is not forecast to be particularly strong anywhere in the swath, given the weak low-level flow in the west, and largely veered/nearly unidirectional winds farther east. multicell modes should be dominant, with mesobeta-scale to localized clustering being the most common way to concentrate the severe threat in the form of cold pools and deep, water-loaded downdrafts. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 08/12/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Kevin, located several hundred miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Linda, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:44:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 09:34:30 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 120843 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt). After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night. The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend through the rest of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 120840 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 12 83(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 110W 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 62(72) 14(86) X(86) X(86) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 22(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 25(64) 1(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 120839 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 120839 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 107.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Linda is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days or so, and Linda is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Linda was located near 14.1, -107.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.