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MD 1478 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WI AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN IA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND THE U.P. OF MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Much of central/eastern WI and parts of far northeastern IA...southeastern MN...and the U.P. of MI Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111648Z - 111845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for several tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe wind gusts will likely increase this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed within an hour. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows convection is beginning to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front across northern and central WI. Pronounced large-scale forcing for ascent associated with an upper trough across the Upper Midwest will likely aid the development of at least scattered severe storms this afternoon across much of WI. The airmass south of the front is strongly unstable, with very steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a rather moist low-level airmass. Any remaining convective inhibition should dissipate within the next hour or two with continued robust diurnal heating. MLCAPE will likely reach 3500-4500+ J/kg by peak afternoon heating across this region, and enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds will support 50+ kt of effective bulk shear across the warm sector. Current expectations are for supercells to form initially, posing a threat for both very large (2+ inch) hail and tornadoes. This tornado threat will be aided by the continued presence of a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet, which should support 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 and low-level updraft rotation. There is some signal in short-term guidance that these supercells may try to grow upscale into an MCS at some point this afternoon. If this were to occur, then numerous severe/damaging wind gusts, some of which could be significant, would be likely given the large buoyancy available. Regardless of eventual storm evolution, the increasing threat for supercells this afternoon will require Tornado Watch issuance within an hour. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43238756 42528773 42528925 42589046 42789105 43099137 43859143 45218958 45478856 45548744 45368680 44648711 43868744 43238756 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WI ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN/NORTHWESTERN OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Midwest and Great Lakes, especially across portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms capable of producing wind damage will also be possible from Virginia into western Pennsylvania and New York. ...WI area this afternoon/evening... A lead, convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will eject eastward over the lower Great Lakes today, in advance of a larger-scale trough that will progress across the upper Great Lakes. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward into WI/IA through this evening, and a very moist/unstable air mass in the low levels will spread northeastward into WI in advance of the front. Scattered supercell development is expected by early-mid afternoon across central WI as convective inhibition weakens in the warm sector, and storms will subsequently move east-southeastward and develop southwestward toward eastern IA. Extreme buoyancy is expected ahead of the front from IA into WI, where MLCAPE will likely reach 4000-5000 J/kg, where mid-upper 70s boundary-layer dewpoints underlie midlevel lapse rates near or greater than 8 C/km. The approach of the midlevel trough will sustain effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, which will favor broken bands of supercells given substantial cross-frontal flow/shear vectors and storm motion off the front. These factors will favor an initial threat for very large hail and several tornadoes, given the moist boundary layer, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2, and a supercell storm mode. Swaths of damaging winds up to 75-80 mph will also be possible with any storm clustering or line segments that evolve from the initial supercells. There is some uncertainty in the severe threat this evening across southeast WI and northeast IL where the lingering influence of the morning convection should be most pronounced. ...Northern IL to the lower Great Lakes through tonight... An ongoing cluster of severe storms in northeast IL has produced a few severe gusts this morning, and there is potential for renewed development along the gust front as it encounters a destabilizing boundary layer across northern IN and southern Lower MI. Strong buoyancy and 30-35 kt westerly low-midlevel shear will likely be sufficient to maintain a damaging-wind threat with the expanding convection through the afternoon. Areas farther east into northwest and north central OH should have time to destabilize in the wake of morning convection, and there is some potential for the storms to reach western NY and northwestern PA by late evening/early tonight. ...VA/MD this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel perturbation with ongoing convection is moving slowly eastward over WV. A diffuse surface lee trough and differential heating to the east into VA should support scattered afternoon thunderstorm development as surface temperatures exceed 90 F and dewpoints are maintained near or above 70 F. Though vertical shear will remain weak, thermodynamic profiles will favor occasional damaging winds with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, giving MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and DCAPE near 1200 J/kg. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 08/11/2021 Read more

The Darlene Fire was reported on private lands on July 13, 2021 at 1:32 pm outside of La Pine, Oregon near Darlene Way. The fire is currently being managed by a Type 2 Incident Management Team, NW Team #6, with Shawn Sheldon, Incident

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MMO TO 35 ESE MMO TO 20 WNW VPZ TO 25 N VPZ. ..BENTLEY..08/11/21 ATTN...WFO...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC091-111740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KANKAKEE INC073-089-111-127-111740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-111740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN Read more

WW 422 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 111350Z - 111800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 850 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Extreme northwestern Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 850 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying storm cluster in northwest Illinois has shown signs of increasing organization this morning. The downstream environment favors maintenance of the storms, and the potential for swaths of damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph, occasional large hail, and possibly a tornado or two with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 5 miles east of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Only minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area are made based on recent trends in observed RH and hi-res guidance. Relative humidity values across southern MT are already falling into the upper 30s, which is in line with more aggressive solutions and supports the idea of persistent elevated conditions this afternoon. To the east, strengthening gradient winds may coincide with diurnal RH reductions to near 30% across the northwest quadrant of MN. These conditions are expected to be fairly localized and relatively transient, but may pose a low-end fire weather concern given curing fine fuels. The dry thunderstorm potential over the Sierra remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 08/11/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, the mid-level flow pattern will remain quite weak as broad cyclonic flow prevails across the northern CONUS. A cold front over the Midwest will stall as high pressure builds to the south. To the west, a transient mid-level low off the coast of California will draw monsoonal moisture northward supporting thunderstorms across the higher terrain. ...Northern Plains... In a dry post frontal flow regime, breezy northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph are expected across much of Montana and the Dakotas through Wednesday afternoon. Downslope trajectories will aid in adiabatic warming supporting warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s F despite the passage of the cold front. Surface humidity values will be borderline for elevated highlights as additional surface moisture behind the front is advected into the area. Diurnal minimum RH values of 25-30% are expected. The combination of gusty winds dry fuels and near criteria RH should support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Sierra Dry thunder... As the weak upper low meanders above the West Coast, monsoonal moisture will be drawn northward across Nevada and southern California. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the higher terrain by early afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and dry surface conditions will increase potential for a few dry lightning strikes. Given current fuel receptiveness, isolated dry thunder probabilities will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OH...THE EXTREME NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern OH...the extreme northern WV Panhandle...and western/central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111550Z - 111745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least an isolated damaging wind threat may continue with storms through the early afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms with a history of producing near-severe wind gusts is presently moving eastward across far eastern OH late this morning. Although some weak convective inhibition remains in the boundary layer per recent mesoanalysis estimates, continued diurnal heating should erode this inhibition within the next couple of hours. A rather moist low-level airmass is present downstream of the ongoing convection, with with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Although the low-level winds across western PA are not overly strong per KPBZ VWPs, there is some increase to around 30-35 kt of westerly flow around 6 km AGL. This may be enough to support continued modest storm organization. Steepening low-level lapses promoting efficient downward momentum transfer and a linear mode both suggest that at least isolated damaging wind gusts should be the main threat with this activity through the early afternoon. Depending on convective intensity trends over the next hour or two, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40468143 40758088 41588079 41597871 41317812 40307843 39827891 39777962 40158096 40468143 Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0423 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 423 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 111545Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Extreme northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1145 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A storm cluster with a history of severe gusts across northeast Illinois is expected to continue moving eastward and likely expand northward this afternoon across northern Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. Damaging winds up to 75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail of 1 to 1.5 inch diameter will be possible with the strongest storms, and a tornado or two may also occur with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Grand Rapids MI to 35 miles southwest of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 422... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:43:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:35:12 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 111442 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure, Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or 265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5 days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to account for the updated initial position. Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity occurring in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 111441 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 16 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 3 33(36) 57(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 56(58) 8(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 35(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 65(73) 3(76) 1(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 25(35) 3(38) X(38) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 5(39) X(39) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 10(58) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 111441 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 111441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 105.9W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.9 West. Linda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Linda is likely to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Linda was located near 13.8, -105.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:38:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:29:20 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the forecast track compared to the previous advisory. Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance, Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 116.8W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 116.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by early Thursday and then a remnant low by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 21.0, -116.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.