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Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 50SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Midwest and Great Lakes, especially across portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... After an active Tuesday, another severe storm-favorable setup is in place across the region again today, with a more notable influence today of stronger winds aloft and more appreciable forcing for ascent (by mid-summer standards) as compared to yesterday, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana northward into Wisconsin/Michigan. An initial early day concern is an upscale-growing cluster of storms from far northeast Missouri into west/northwest Illinois. These storms are poorly resolved by various short-term guidance. Low-level jet and warm advection abatement along with mid-level cap reestablishment could be storm detrimental as the morning wears on, although eastward persistence across parts of northern Illinois into northern Indiana is plausible if not probable given the increasingly extensive mass of storms (potential cold pool ramifications) and expected downstream destabilization associated with a very moist environment and relatively cloud-free skies for robust insolation. Farther north, storms may gradually increase in coverage/intensify across the western half of Wisconsin this morning, with the possibility that elevated early day storms become increasingly surface-based by midday/early afternoon as they become coupled with a very unstable boundary layer across south-central/east-central/northeast Wisconsin. Although details of the evolution are a bit uncertain (including the westward extent of development across southwest Wisconsin/northeast Iowa), the aforementioned parts of southern/eastern Wisconsin will be of key concern for an appreciably increasing severe potential by mid/late afternoon near the east/southeastward-advancing cold front. A very strong belt of cyclonic westerlies (50+ kt) for the season will support some initial intense supercells capable of large hail and potentially a tornado risk, even with an increasingly westerly component of the near-surface winds. Storms should further increase/organize through the late afternoon and early evening as they likely grow upscale and move east-southeastward across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois into Lower Michigan and possibly northern Indiana. This will likely result in an appreciable increase in wind damage potential, especially in light of the seasonally strong low/mid-level winds and reservoir of ample moisture and strong buoyancy. Overall storm intensity/wind damage potential is expected to diminish overnight. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States... Initially, an ongoing early day storm cluster across northern Ohio may persist east-southeastward today into an increasing unstable environment, with wind damage the main severe potential. Otherwise, modestly strong and weakly cyclonic mid/upper-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong instability will support multiple zones of eastward-moving storm clusters into this afternoon and evening. A diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates will support stronger updrafts/downdrafts by afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of wind damage and possibly a few instances of marginally severe hail. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 08/11/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Linda, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 Fire is in Jones County Texas, Started around 1430, heavy brush fuels with moderate activity, TFS is in unified command with

Southeast WA Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the Moe Canyon fire at 6:00AM August 05, 2021. The fire was reported at 6PM August 03. Initial attack was carried out by crews from WA DNR and USFS supported by aircraft. The fire is burning in steep, rugged terrain 10 miles NW of Entiat

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 10 13:20:02 UTC 2021.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 10 13:20:02 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS... CORRECTED TEXT ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad portion of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians/Northeast States. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across a relatively broad region mainly this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and isolated instances of large hail as the primary hazards. That said, short-term guidance remains highly variable in terms of preferred corridors/timing of severe storms, with multiple scenarios plausible within a strongly unstable/weakly forced regime. A prominent shortwave trough over North Dakota/Manitoba will continue east-northeastward today toward northern Ontario, with a secondary shortwave trough digging southeastward over the Canadian Prairies in its wake. The most appreciable forcing for ascent will be focused near the international border/Lake Superior vicinity, although a moderately strong (by August standards) belt of mid-level westerlies and weak/subtle height falls will influence areas as far south as Iowa/northern Missouri and Illinois. Owing to advection and evapotranspiration, somewhat higher moisture content (more extensive mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints) is expected within the warm sector as compared to yesterday, with 4000-5500 J/kg MLCAPE expected by peak heating in areas including southern/eastern Iowa and northern Missouri into much of Illinois/Indiana and southern/eastern Wisconsin. Where storms do develop, robust instability and modest deep-layer shear, which will be maximized near the weak boundary across Iowa into southern Wisconsin, will support severe storms including some initial supercells. Such development appears most likely to initially occur across southern/eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin/far northwest Illinois during the mid/late afternoon. Farther south, other storms could increase/intensify across northern/central Missouri toward southern Illinois today as a byproduct of early day ongoing storms across far northeast Kansas, although mid-level capping with southward extent and a lack of an overt MCV casts uncertainty on this scenario. Damaging winds should the most common risk overall, particularly with the potential for quasi-linear upscale growth this evening across eastern Iowa/southern Wisconsin into Illinois/northeast Missouri. However, isolated large hail and possibly some tornado risk will be possible with the initial supercellular development that is possible mainly across southern/eastern Iowa into Wisconsin/northwest Illinois late this afternoon and early evening. ...Ohio Valley to Northeast States/Central Appalachians... Multiple clusters of storms are expected to persist and/or develop eastward today, with a diurnal intensification into this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. Although deep-layer winds will be weak, a moist/unstable air mass across a broad region will support the possibility of locally severe storms capable of wind damage. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 08/10/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:46:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 09:29:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:45:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100844 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 113.3W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is expected over the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the southern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 18.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 475 FOPZ11 KNHC 100844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 88 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 28(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 100843 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 12(12) 44(56) 8(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 40(45) 8(53) 1(54) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 3(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 32(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 30(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100843 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Over the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have showed increased signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. An ASCAT-B pass around 0330 UTC revealed that the low has developed a well-defined center and is producing 25 to 30-kt winds, with some higher wind vectors flagged as rain contaminated within the deep convection occurring to the south and west of the center. The system has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. The estimated motion of the depression is west-northwest, or 290/7 kt. The system is expected to generally move west-northwestward to westward over the next several days, as it is steered by a ridge to its north and northeast. This track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the official NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The depression is located in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few days. However, moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear will likely prevent rapid intensification of this system in the short term. Nonetheless, the intensity guidance unanimously supports strengthening, and this system is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Continued strengthening is forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend, and the cyclone could reach hurricane strength by Thursday. The official NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN consensus aid and shows the system's intensity peaking on days 4 and 5, when the wind shear is forecast to diminish while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch