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More than 90% of the small grain crops in south central and southwestern North Dakota will not be harvested as most of it has already been baled, according to the owner of an ag supply store in Mandan who was part of the Agweek Crop Tour. Much of the small grains were baled for hay. Nitrate levels were found to be too high in some of the hay and was not safe for use as livestock feed. Some of the early chopped corn for silage had nitrate levels of 10,000 parts per million, far too high for livestock feed. Agweek (Fargo, N.D.), Aug 7, 2021

United States Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack visited with Minnesota farmers, who shared their accounts of drought on their farms. He learned that sale barns were turning livestock owners away as there was no one to purchase the livestock. Yet there was no hay or grazing land to sustain the animals. Vilsack said that he would strive to get additional aid for farmers. Duluth News Tribune (Minn.), Aug 12, 2021

 Fire is burning on Oregon Department of Forestry protected lands 4.5 miles south of Mitchell,

While melons thrive in hot, dry weather, this year has been too hot and dry for melons in the Forestburg area. The quality of the melons is amazing, but the quantity was down, yielding about half the usual number of melons. A particular cow comes over to the roadside stand daily, hoping for a melon. KELOLAND-TV CBS 11 (Sioux City, S.D.), Aug 10, 2021

Drought dried up the last natural watering hole for livestock on a Moffat County ranch. The ranchers haul hundreds of gallons of water daily for the animals. Hay has not grown well in recent years, forcing them to buy hay, which is pricey with the shipping costs. The ranchers coped by selling a third of their herd this year. If there is not water for cattle, deer and elk were probably suffering, too, so hunting may not be very good in northwest Colorado. Craig Daily Press (Colo.), Aug 13, 2021

Many North Dakota farmers were harvesting corn for livestock forage instead of grain, according to North Dakota State University Extension. Short or very short described 92% of topsoil and 89% of subsoil in the state. Almost two-thirds of the spring wheat crop was rated poor or very poor, with about half of the corn and soybean crops also in those two categories. Ranchers were culling herds and cutting failed corn and other crops for hay across the state. Water quality continued to be a concern. Pasture and range conditions were rated 79% poor or very poor, as was 75% of the alfalfa hay crop. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Aug 12, 2021

The Grandview Fire was reported at 1:30 p.m., Sunday, July 11th, burning on lands protected by Oregon Department of Forestry and on the Crooked River National Grassland.Cause of the fire is under

A Bitterroot Valley rancher and hay grower came up 750 to 1,000 bales short this year. The high cost of hay at $330 per ton, nearly double last year’s price, has ranchers selling livestock. Grain farmers were being asked to bale their straw or have it baled to use as a feed supplement. Ravalli Republic (Mont.), Aug 8, 2021

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located more than 950 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 ..MOORE..08/16/21 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-161840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-161840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC007-027-071-087-099-131-201-205-253-275-161840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 441 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 161225Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Alabama Central and eastern Panhandle of Florida Southwestern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 825 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...As Tropical Storm Fred approaches landfall on the FL Panhandle coastline, the threat for a few tornadoes will increase with supercells moving inland in northeastern and eastern sectors of the circulation. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Marianna FL to 60 miles east of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 13035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MONTANA INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Current visible satellite imagery depicts predominantly cloud free skies, allowing for adequate surface heating to mix the boundary layer despite the presence of smoke across the Interior West. RH has already dropped below 20% across much of Montana, with some areas seeing 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and gusts exceeding 20 mph. Continued surface heating should support a further lowering of RH across much of the northern Rockies to the northern Great Basin this afternoon, with at least 15 mph widespread southwesterly winds expected (20-25 mph in Montana). The primary change to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into portions of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. The latest guidance shows a small impulse pivoting around the main mid-level trough and traversing northern California by afternoon peak heating. Regionally stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix downward through a deep, dry boundary layer to support 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20% RH, warranting Elevated highlights. Consideration was given to adding Critical highlights to the lee of the northern Sierra, but the lack of agreement for a stronger surface wind field among regional model guidance rendered confidence too low for a Critical delineation. Nonetheless, at least locally Critical conditions are expected, especially in western Nevada. Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights were also considered for parts of southern Montana, as a relatively greater concentration of high-based, fast moving dry storms over critically dry fuels is expected to support efficient lightning-induced ignitions. However, there is some potential for storms to produce more wetting rains. Given the brief, very localized coverage of scattered, classic dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights were not added. ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the interior Northwest into parts of the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains through the day and evening, as a stronger upper trough begins to amplify over the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge over the Great Basin begins to weaken. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across parts of SK/MB, as a trailing surface trough moves through the northern Plains. A cold front will move into the Northwest in conjunction with the amplifying upper trough. ...Montana/North Dakota - Wind/RH conditions... While afternoon heating may be somewhat muted due to widespread smoke, downslope flow and mixing/drying in the wake of the surface trough will likely be sufficient to support critically low RH across much of MT into the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a belt of modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow will support sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts from northern MT into northwest ND. This combination of wind/RH will result in a threat of critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Further eastward across ND into northwest MN, there is greater uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of RH reductions during the afternoon, as a narrow low-level moist plume moves northward ahead of the surface trough, but there is some potential for elevated conditions to develop should sufficient heating/mixing occur this afternoon. ...Interior Northwest into the Great Basin - Wind/RH conditions... A general increase in low/midlevel flow is expected across a broad area from the interior Northwest into parts of the Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible in downslope-favored areas, where sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are possible concurrent with minimum RH values of 10-20%. ...Dry Thunderstorm Potential... As the upper ridge breaks down, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from Nevada northeastward into Montana. Thunderstorm coverage may be suppressed to some extent due to negative impacts on heating/destabilization from widespread smoke, but any thunderstorm activity will likely be rather dry and pose a threat of ignitions due to very receptive fuel conditions. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of thunderstorms is expected from southwest into central MT, but uncertainty regarding coverage to the west and rainfall potential to the east preclude an upgrade to the dry-thunderstorm outlook at this time. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will also be a threat from thunderstorms, especially across parts of MT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1533 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 441... FOR THE APALACHEE BAY COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Areas affected...The Apalachee Bay Coast Concerning...Tornado Watch 441... Valid 161636Z - 161830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues. SUMMARY...Rain bands with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move northward into the Apalachee Bay coastal areas over the next 1-2 hours. The threat for brief waterspouts and/or tornadoes should correspondingly increase through the early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Tropical storm Fred continues to gradually shift northward towards the FL panhandle. To the east of the center circulation, persistent rain bands continue to feature embedded thunderstorms thanks to a combination of low-level confluence over Apalachee Bay and warm theta-e advection off the FL peninsula. VWP observations from KTLH have shown strengthening flow in the lowest 1-2 km over the past hour as Fred's stronger wind field shifts north. Consequently, low-level helicity has increased and is supporting weak rotation in thunderstorms within the rain bands. Recent RAP analyses support this trend and show favorable ESRH beginning to overspread much of the Apalachee Bay coastal areas. As a result, the potential for brief waterspouts and tornadoes is expected to increase along the coast over the next few hours as the rain bands begin to move onshore. ..Moore.. 08/16/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29638516 29978500 30188460 30278422 30118368 29968346 29788331 29568333 29488345 29538358 29698373 29878389 29928411 29768436 29638465 29498492 29488512 29638516 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF GULF COAST REGION...AND PARTS OF ARIZONA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM LINES ...SUMMARY... There is a threat for a few tornadoes across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia today. Other storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts and some hail from parts of the central and southern High Plains, Southwest, and northern Rockies. ...FL/AL/GA... TS Fred will move ashore this afternoon/evening over the FL peninsula, with bands of convection affecting the region. Local VAD profiles and model guidance show strong low-level shear profiles that are conditionally favorable for supercell structures and the risk of a few tornadoes. The threat should slowly spread northward into parts of southeast AL and southwest GA later today. Please refer to WW #441 and MCD #1532 for further details. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies are noted this morning over the mountains of northern/central AZ, where afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg are expected. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development as a shortwave trough over UT tracks southward. Models suggest that northerly mid-level winds will strengthen this afternoon around peak heating, helping to organize cold pools and propagate storms off the higher terrain into southern AZ. Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger cores. Given this scenario, have added a SLGT risk for parts of the region. ...MT... Strong heating is also occurring over the mountains of eastern ID and southwest MT. This area is beneath relatively strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains this afternoon and develop eastward into central MT this evening. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, coupled with sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms and strong winds aloft, will pose a risk of high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/16/2021 Read more

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161453 TCDEP2 Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt. Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side. The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at 255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids. Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS guidance diagnosing less than 5-kt of shear over the hurricane currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain only marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its continued annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening over the next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C isotherm into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over the first couple of days remains higher than the majority of the model guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda begins to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast is brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of the forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical gale once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin/Brennan

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:40:46 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 161448 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 2(64) X(64) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 161447 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...LINDA MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 123.7W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 123.7 West. Linda is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn back toward the west is forecast tonight, followed by a west- northwestward motion beginning by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brennan

...LINDA MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 16 the center of Linda was located near 17.9, -123.7 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.