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MD 1546 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 444...445... FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Areas affected...Northwestern South Carolina and adjacent areas of North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...445... Valid 171925Z - 172130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444, 445 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across both WW 444 and 445, though the area of highest tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours will likely reside over northwestern South Carolina and adjacent areas of North Carolina. DISCUSSION...The environment over central to northwestern SC has been very productive for tornado generation over the past few hours despite the continued weakening of the remnants of TS Fred. This is likely attributable to a combination of higher low-level theta-e advection from the central Carolinas (where breaks in cloud cover have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s), continued confluence along a residual rain band, and a persistent corridor of warm air advection between 925-850 mb from central to northwestern SC on the eastern side of the tropical low. In addition to providing lift and maintaining instability, this warm advection is supporting 150-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, as observed by regional VWPs. This favorable environment is expected to be maintained through the late afternoon hours, which suggests that the associated tornado threat will persist as well - primarily along and north of the I-26 Corridor in northwestern SC and into western portions of NC. An upgrade to an Enhanced risk is planned for parts of this region for the 20z Convective outlook. ..Moore.. 08/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33618159 34318212 34728272 34908311 35248316 35518285 35878210 35768152 35428110 35048089 34688087 34308082 33718112 33618159 Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..08/17/21 ATTN...WFO...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC005-009-157-169-171-189-193-197-172100- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHANY ASHE ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN VAC035-063-067-077-089-121-141-155-173-197-640-690-750-172100- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FLOYD FRANKLIN GRAYSON HENRY MONTGOMERY PATRICK PULASKI SMYTH WYTHE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE GALAX MARTINSVILLE RADFORD Read more

WW 445 TORNADO NC VA 171705Z - 172300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest North Carolina Southwest Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may continue to occasionally producing brief tornadoes as they track northward across the watch area this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 105 miles west northwest of Greensboro NC to 30 miles north northeast of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 444... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 17025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track for widespread Elevated surface conditions across northern California, and for locally Elevated conditions across the northern Plains. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. In addition, locally Elevated conditions may precede the southward sagging cold front across central into southern Nevada tomorrow/Wednesday. However, the brevity of the expected dry/breezy surface conditions precludes Elevated highlights at this time. In addition, scant buoyancy atop a post-cold-frontal airmass across central ID may support a brief thunderstorm or two. Given a relatively dry boundary layer, a dry strike or two cannot be ruled out, but the sparse coverage suggests isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 08/17/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ ...Synopsis... An active mid-level flow pattern will continue day2/Wednesday, as the upper trough moves to the east and begins to weaken slightly. The surface cold front across northern California and the Great Basin will continue southward, while surface low pressure in the lee of the Rockies moves eastward onto the High Plains. Lingering strong winds and dry conditions across California may support elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon. ...Northern California... As the trough continues east, mid-level winds will begin to wane in the early morning hours across the northern Sacramento Valley. Gusty surface winds around 15-20 mph may linger through day as they veer to the northeast, and are enhanced by the development of thermally induced surface pressure trough. Warm temperatures will also support widespread relative humidity below 20%. With dry fuels and ongoing fires, elevated fire weather conditions appear likely through the day before winds weaken and humidity recoveries improve overnight. ...Dakotas... Ahead of the surface low and lee trough across the northern Plains, gusty southerly winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to develop during the afternoon. Surface humidity values across much of the region will remain above 30% as the southerly flow transports Gulf moisture northward. However, a few spots across western South Dakota may see localized humidity below 25% near peak heating. This should support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions given mostly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Areas affected...Central to Western Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171849Z - 172045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the mid to late afternoon hours. Increasing instability and hot surface temperatures will support the potential for severe downburst winds. A watch is possible in the coming hours to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across UT show temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s with a slight increase in dewpoints for some locations thanks to modest low-level moisture advection from AZ. This is allowing MUCAPE values to increase well above 1000 J/kg from southwest to central UT. This is priming the thermodynamic environment for thunderstorm development through the mid to late afternoon hours as an upper-level wave and attendant surface trough push into the region from the west. Growing cumulus fields across eastern NV and west/central UT and a few transient thunderstorms have been noted over the past 1-2 hours, and are further evidence of destabilization. Boundary-layer mixing is forecast to deepen substantially as temperatures warm into the low 90s due to an elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z SLC sounding. This will allow for efficient downward mixing and evaporative cooling conducive to severe downburst winds with any strong thunderstorm. Convective coverage may increase gradually through a combination of orographic ascent and more focused lift along the surface trough/ahead of the upper-level wave, but coverage may be sufficient to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch in the coming hours. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 38721454 39741425 40651252 40591154 40271070 39161045 38311079 37671159 37451273 37731401 37941441 38721454 Read more

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N AGS TO 5 SW AND TO 50 SSE TYS. ..SMITH..08/17/21 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC241-171930- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RABUN NCC021-023-045-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-175-199- 171930- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUNCOMBE BURKE CLEVELAND HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY SCC001-003-007-021-045-047-059-063-071-073-077-081-083-087- 171930- SC Read more

WW 444 TORNADO GA NC SC 171440Z - 172300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Georgia Western North Carolina Western South Carolina * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1040 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The remnants of Fred will continue to track northward across Georgia, with bands of thunderstorms affecting the watch area. Isolated tornadoes and gusty winds will be possible through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Asheville NC to 65 miles south southeast of Spartanburg SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 443... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16025. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds and hail will be possible across parts of the Intermountain West, and over portions of the Tennessee Valley area. Gusty winds and a tornado or two may also occur across portions of the central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic region. ...UT/WY/CO... An upper low/trough will slowly progress east/southeast across the Intermountain West on Wednesday. This will bring a belt of enhanced south/southwesterly mid/upper level flow across UT and into western CO and WY. A surface cold front is also forecast to shift east/southeast across UT/WY during the morning and afternoon and emerge across the northern Plains to the central High Plains by Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of UT and WY near and just ahead of the cold front. Cloud cover also is expected over the region. This will limit destabilization, and instability is forecast to remain weak through the period. Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates and moderate shear should be sufficient to foster isolated stronger clusters and line segments. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will continue to lift north/northeast from WV/VA to NY during the forecast period. A tropical airmass will reside over the region and some daytime heating will result in modest destabilization ahead of the low. There is some discrepancy among forecast guidance in the strength of low level wind fields, with the NAM currently being quite a bit stronger than other guidance. Backed low level winds on the eastern side of the low will result in curved hodographs and some transient supercell structures/low level rotation will be possible, especially in any pockets of stronger destabilization, and isolated gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible. ... Mid-MS/TN Valley Vicinity... A belt of modestly enhanced lower- to mid-level flow is expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region on Wednesday. This should support potential for a few stronger storms/bands of storms during the afternoon amid 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. While coverage of stronger storms should remain limited given modest shear and weak large-scale forcing, isolated damaging gusts may occur with the strongest storms through early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/17/2021 Read more

Final News Release August 17, 2021 Orient, WA - The Nine Mine Fire is located 4.5 miles south/southeast of Laurier, WA. This lightning caused fire started on Wednesday, August 4th and has a burned approximately 164 acres of forested land. As of today, the fire is 100% contained. Evacuations and Road Closures: All evacuation levels have been lifted and there are no road closures. Yesterday Firefighters scouted the previous night’s rock slide towards the west edge and extinguished unburned fuels found near the fireline. They also patrolled and worked on extinguishing the few hotspots around the remainder of the fireline. Today In addition to patrolling for hotspots, firefighters will be cleaning up left-over hose, equipment and trash. Roads used by firefighting equipment during the fire will be stabilized. The public may see smoke interior to fireline over the next few days. Northeast Incident Management Team Three will be returning control of the fire to the local North Columbia...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF UTAH... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes may occur today from parts of the western Carolinas and southwestern Virginia. Locally severe gusts may affect parts of the Great Basin. ...GA/Carolinas/VA... The remnants of Fred are continuing to move slowly northward across GA. One primary band of stronger convection to the northeast of the circulation center is likely to maintain organization much of the day, affecting parts of western SC/NC. Vertical shear profiles are quite strong in this region, with visible/IR satellite imagery suggesting a clear slot impinging on the line. This may aid in the development of supercells and occasional tornadoes through the afternoon. Other more isolated cells may occur farther north over western NC and southern VA, with a risk of a tornado or two as well. ...Great Basin... Latest water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across NV. Strong heating ahead of this feature will help temperatures to climb well into the 90s across eastern NV and much of UT, where dewpoints in are in the 40s to lower 50s. This will yield sufficient CAPE for rather widespread thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles coupled with sufficient westerly flow aloft will likely result in strong outflow winds near the more organized storm clusters. ...MT... Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread rapidly eastward. A few of the storms will likely produce locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/17/2021 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NEVADA... Much of the previous forecast remains on track (please see the previous forecast below for more details). The Critical delineation in Nevada has been expanded northwestward, as the latest guidance consensus shows more widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 15% RH along/behind the cold front later this afternoon/evening. Guidance consensus has also trended drier across the northern Plains, with Elevated highlights expanded eastward when considering the widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly surface winds expected, along with dry fuels. Gusty and erratic winds may also accompany the initially, potentially dry thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies (especially southern Montana) this afternoon and evening. A few of the stronger gusts may approach severe limits, with a Marginal risk of severe storms in place. Please see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/17/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow will begin to overspread much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin early today ahead of a strong shortwave troughing moving onshore. Ascent from the trough will deepen a surface cyclone across western Montana while a cold front moves through the Northwest and northern California. Strong winds and low relative humidity will support widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions from California, through the Great Basin, Rockies and onto the High Plains. ...Northern and central Nevada... As the shortwave trough steadily deepens and moves southeast, a belt of strong westerly flow will develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Diurnal heating and deep mechanical mixing from the increasing flow aloft will support a very dry boundary layer with widespread surface RH below 10%. Westerly surface winds of 25-30 mph and locally higher gusts will likely develop in conjunction with the dry surface conditions. Atop areas of near record-dry fuels, the favorable combination of dry and windy conditions is forecast to support widespread critical fire weather. A cold front associated with the strengthening lee low will move south into northern Nevada around sunset. Strong wind gusts may accompany frontal passage along with a significant wind shift to the north. A few strong gusts may linger into the overnight hours behind the front as pressure gradients weaken, but increasing humidity recoveries, weaker winds and cooler temperatures should limit the threat after dark. ...Rockies and High Plains... As the surface low begins to deepen in response to the approaching trough early today, west-east pressure gradients will strengthen across the Rockies behind a lee trough. Westerly surface flow will begin to increase through the afternoon, driving dry downslope flow across much of Idaho, Wyoming and western Montana. To the east of the lee trough, dry and warm southeasterly flow over the High Plains will likely develop. Widespread humidity below 25% is expected with surface winds of 15-25 mph. Fuels remain mostly dry, suggesting widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely. Along the cold front across southwestern Montana and central Idaho, lingering mid-level moisture from recent monsoon activity and large-scale lift from the approaching trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Model soundings show weak buoyancy developing atop a well-mixed boundary layer with large dewpoint depressions. The fast storm speeds and poor precipitation efficiency will likely favor dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels and adequate instability/forcing for lighting, isolated dry strikes appear probable. ...Northern California... As the shortwave trough moves onshore, the associated cold front will intensify as it moves out of the Northwest into northern California. Northerly surface winds of 15-25 mph will likely develop ahead of and along the front as it slowly moves south late in the afternoon and early evening. At the same time, mid-level flow along the backside of the trough will rapidly increase as 500 mb winds of 50 to 60 kts overspread northern California. Model soundings and high-resolution model guidance show a brief window of strong surface winds and humidity of 15-20% overlapping across the northern Sacramento Valley. Uncertainty on the exact temporal and spatial extent of this overlap remains uncertain. However, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible from later afternoon to early evening ahead of and along the cold front. After dark, northerly surface winds will likely intensify as the upper-level jet continues to move south. Despite the increase in wind speeds, poor phasing of the trough and front with the diurnal cycle will result in higher surface humidity values. While elevated/critical criteria conditions appear unlikely overnight, the strong surface winds and very dry fuels may impact several large ongoing fires through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AGS TO 30 E AHN TO 65 NNW AHN. ..SMITH..08/17/21 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC105-119-137-147-257-171610- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT FRANKLIN HABERSHAM HART STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 14:35:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:40:43 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171433 TCDEP2 Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 Linda has not changed much during the past several hours. The system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature. The convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it was a few hours ago, however. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt. Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that category during the next day or so. Nonetheless, a combination of cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend. The models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm becoming post-tropical by then. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5. Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track during the next several days. The models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Based on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171433 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 2 19(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 44(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...LINDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 127.4W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 127.4 West. Linda is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with that motion forecast to continue through the remainder of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LINDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 17 the center of Linda was located near 17.5, -127.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 128 WTPZ22 KNHC 171432 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 126.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI