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The Fourtown Lake Fire was first detected on July 25 approximately 12 miles N of Ely. The fire is in containment lines at 265-acres and still showing some smoke. The fire will continue to be monitored by

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 25 14:03:01 UTC 2021.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 25 14:03:01 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MO TO OH...THE BLUE RIDGE...AND NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS TO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening from northern Missouri to Ohio, and along the Blue Ridge. Other isolated storms with large hail and severe outflow gusts may occur this afternoon/evening from northeast Colorado into western Kansas. Clusters of storms, with the potential to produce at least isolated large hail and damaging gusts, are expected overnight near the South Dakota/Minnesota/Iowa border region. ...Synopsis and MO to OH this afternoon... A low-amplitude trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, with a midlevel high centered over OK. A belt of 30+ kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will extend from the northern Great Basin to northern Plains, and eastward over the upper Great Lakes along the southern flank of a midlevel trough moving over ON. At the surface, the effective front (modulated by outflow from prior convection) will extend from OH across central IN/IL into northern MO, and the primary synoptic front will be a little farther northwest into NE/IA. The effective front/outflow will be a primary focus for storm development this afternoon, with storms somewhat focused across OH with remnant MCV, and possibly along the outflow moving slowly southeastward into northern MO and west central IL. Vertical shear will be relatively weak along most of this corridor, though the stronger storms could produce isolated damaging winds with downbursts this afternoon/evening. ...KS/CO area this afternoon/evening... Convection may form this afternoon/evening near the stalled front and a weak lee cyclone near the KS/CO border, where deep mixing along the front will support high-based storms capable of producing isolated severe outflow winds. Other storms may also form late this afternoon/evening into northeast CO, in the post-front upslope regime east of the higher terrain. If storms form in this environment, vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. ...Dakotas to southwest MN/northwest IA late tonight... Later tonight, elevated thunderstorms are expected to form in a couple of clusters - one in the vicinity of the front and the SD/MN/IA border, and another close to the ND/SD border. Strengthening warm advection should lead to the formation of a storm cluster late tonight across the SD/IA/MN border region, on the northeast edge of the remaining unstable warm sector. Relatively large MUCAPE (2000+ J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support a threat for embedded, elevated supercells capable of producing large hail, as well as isolated damaging outflow gusts from 06-12z. A Slight risk has not been introduced with this update, but this area will need to be monitored closely in later updates. Otherwise, the convection near the ND/SD border will likely be rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, and could pose a threat for isolated large hail from roughly 09-12z. ...Blue Ridge corridor this afternoon... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and substantial DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will favor isolated wet microbursts with scattered afternoon storms along the Blue Ridge, and perhaps along outflow-reinforced segments of the southeast Atlantic coast sea breeze into parts of southeast GA and SC. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 08/25/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

This will be the last update on Inciweb for the French Fire unless additional fire activity takes place.  Please note there is a French Fire burning in California - this is not that fire incident.The French Fire is located along the Main Salmon River at the mouth of French Creek approximately 12 miles east of Riggins on the south side of the river.  The fire is currently estimated at 1,459 acres with potential spread to the southwest uphill.  Impacts to the rafting community are not expected to continue to take place. There are no evacuation orders in place at this time, but campgrounds are closed from Howard Ranch up river through Vinegar Creek. The main Salmon River Road is fully open for vehicle traffic - expect minor delays in the fire area due to potential rock roll out and burning debris falling into the roadway.  Camping site along the river are open.The Burgdorf-French Creek Road closure order has been terminated - the roadway is fully open.  Call the Payette...

The Town of Strasburg declared a drought warning and urged residents and businesses to voluntarily conserve water. The seven-day average river flow was 103 cubic feet per second. The Northern Virginia Daily (Strasburg, Va.), Aug 9, 2021

Tuesday Fire Update- 10:00 AM Two hand crews and three engines will head to the fireline today to continue to check and patrol the fire’s edge. Demobilization of the remaining firefighting resources is in progress.The County Assist Team will be transitioning the fire over to a Type 4 Team managed by Fort Belknap Agency Wednesday morning at 6:00 AM. This team will be comprised of an incident commander, one twenty-person hand crew, and six engines.Evacuations: The Evacuation Warnings for the communities of Zortman, Landusky, Pine Grove, Star Hill, and Lodge Pole will lift tonight at 8:00 PM.Community Support: Fort Belknap Tribe is accepting donations to support those impacted by the fire. Please drop supplies at the Kills at Night Center in Hays, MT. Contact Maggie Werk with questions at

The Mannix Park Fire was detected around 3:00PM on August 16, 2021. The fire is burning 11 miles north of Garrison, MT near the Avon Valley in Powell County, Montana.Current Acreage: 35 AcresContainment: 60% containedEvacuations: No evacuations at this timeIgnition Cause: Lightning The Western Montana All Hazards Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire at 6:00AM on August 18, 2021. The fire is located primarily on Bureau of Land Management and private lands, under the direct fire protection of the Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation. The cause of the fire is lightning. The fire is burning in heavy dead and down material, mixed conifer forests, and grazing lands. Firefighter access to the fire is difficult due to its remote location, lack of roads and steep terrain. Smokejumpers, aerial retardant drops and DNRC resources provided initial attack on the fire on 8/16 when the fire was detected. The fire is being managed under a full suppression...

Grand Valley water suppliers in western Colorado have enough water for this summer, but are planning for another dry year. Grand Junction does not expect to meet water storage goals for the coming winter. The City of Grand Junction was working with Clifton Water District to keep more water in storage using their interconnection. Grand Junction officials also drained two reservoirs and shifted the water to Juniata Reservoir, the city’s main storage reservoir, to limit evaporation losses. Ute Water Conservancy District on July 1 began charging a 2% drought pumping rate to cover the cost of drawing directly from the Colorado River. Ute Water pumped from the Colorado River from June 10 through July 7. Palisade stopped watering the lawn in front of the old Palisade High School and gymnasium to conserve water. The Daily Sentinel (Grand Junction, Colo.) Aug 11, 2021

Fort Bragg was in a Stage 3 drought emergency, requiring the savings of 20% to 30% of typical water use. A desalination plant was ordered for times when sea water pushes up the Noyo River, making it too salty to be processed by the city water treatment plant. The Mendocino Beacon (Calif.), Aug 10, 2021

Some wine grapes in the Napa and Sonoma Valleys were struggling amid the intense drought and were stressed with the backs of the leaves showing. The fruit and leaf canopies are smaller this year. One vineyard's well went dry. KPIX-TV CBS 5 San Francisco (Calif.), Aug 10, 2021

Signs around Mendocino plead with visitors to conserve water as its wells run dry. Nearby, Fort Bragg, Mendocino’s backup water supplier, is very low on water as the Noyo River barely flows. Residents and business owners were purchasing water from ever farther away to refill their tanks. Some restaurants were cutting their hours to reduce costs. Since February, the cost of water has doubled. Associated Press News (New York), Aug 10, 2021 Mendocino residents and business owners were purchasing water as the town’s groundwater wells ran low. Mendocino’s main water supplier, the City of Fort Bragg, stopped providing water for Mendocino as Fort Bragg had to guard supplies for its own citizens first. Mendocino leaders have entertained a number of possible methods of bringing potable water into town—barge, railway or even by wine tankers. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat (Calif.), July 22, 2021

Ute Water Conservancy District on July 1 began charging a 2% drought pumping rate to cover the cost of drawing directly from the Colorado River. Ute Water pumped from the Colorado River from June 10 through July 7. The Daily Sentinel (Grand Junction, Colo.) Aug 11, 2021 The Ute Water Conservancy District tapped the Colorado River to avoid running its backup reservoirs dry as the region was in extreme to exceptional drought. The Ute district relies on water from the Grand Mesa reservoir and hasn’t needed to draw from the Colorado River in more than five decades. The UWCD serves Grand Junction and Mesa County and is the largest water provider between Denver and Salt Lake City. Water customers of the UWCD will be billed a 2% surcharge to cover the cost of electric power and increased water treatment costs. The district has junior water rights and expects to be cut off later this summer. The Colorado Sun (Denver), July 2, 2021

Water deliveries will end one month early on Oct. 1 after the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District board voted on Aug. 20 for the early end. The persistent drought and large water debt to southern New Mexico and Texas were the reasons given for conserving water. “We understand this could potentially cause people to lose their farms,” said a board member. “We’re not taking it lightly.” Albuquerque Journal (N.M.), Aug 22, 2021

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 14:33:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 15:28:16 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 571 FOPZ13 KNHC 231432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 53 8(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models which have shifted northward on this cycle. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4. Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available intensity guidance through 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART