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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF AZ... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley, extending southwest into the central Plains. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk along with marginally severe hail. Gusty winds may also accompany storms in the lower desert regions of AZ. ...Upper MS Valley to Central Plains... Notable short-wave trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to progress across the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by 15/00z. While southern extent of this feature should influence northern portions of the MRGL Risk late this afternoon, large-scale height rises are expected across much of the central US, including the Plains and MS Valley. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ should increase across the central Plains before veering into WI by early evening. This will allow higher-PW air mass to advance north, then east into southern MN/IA by peak heating. Even so, forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will struggle to reach convective temperatures and low-level warm advection may ultimately be the primary forcing mechanism for potential robust convective development. Latest models support this with most guidance suggesting warm-sector convection struggling to organize in the presence of height rises and marginal low-level lapse rates. However, isentropic ascent across southern MN into southwest WI should encourage slightly elevated convection along nose of LLJ. Some of this activity could produce gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Farther southwest across KS, strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains where surface temperatures should soar into the mid 90s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 23z and isolated high-based convection is expected to develop across southwest KS which could spread/develop northeast along the boundary into south-central NE. Gusty winds and hail are the primary threats with the diurnally-driven activity. ...AZ... A considerable amount of deep convection developed over the higher terrain of northwestern Mexico ahead of what appears to be a weak short-wave trough. This low-latitude wave should drift toward the Gulf of California which will allow for more favorable trajectories to transport moisture north of the international border into AZ. With PWs expected to climb well above 1", strong boundary-layer heating should contribute to increasing buoyancy that will prove supportive of robust convection. Forecast soundings suggest deep convection will develop as early as 19z across southeast AZ, then spread/develop west toward the lower deserts. A considerable amount of convection may ultimately evolve across this region and gusty winds are certainly possible given the increasingly wet downdrafts. ..Darrow/Dean.. 09/14/2019 Read more

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 434 WTNT34 KNHC 140542 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 75.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 75.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Humberto was located near 25.8, -75.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140300 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Corrected to change depression to storm in the second paragraph Deep convection has been gradually increasing this evening, and it is currently most organized in a curved band to the east of the estimated center. In addition, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the depression has strengthened. The maximum flight-level wind at 700 mb was 41 kt and reliable SFMR values were 35 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Humberto. The data from the aircraft indicate that the cyclone is titled to the northeast with height, likely due to southwesterly wind shear. Humberto has been moving erratically during the past 12 to 18 hours as the cyclone has been trying to organize, but my best guess at the initial motion is 320/5. During the next few days, a ridge to the north of the system over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward, with a weakness in the ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause the storm to slow down and turn northward off the east coast of Florida in 36 to 48 hours. The models show the trough over the northeastern U.S. amplifying early next week, which should cause Humberto to turn northeastward and then eastward away from the U.S. The NHC track forecast has been nudged south and east of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Since there is increasing confidence that the storm will remain well offshore of the coast of Florida, the Tropical Storm Watch for that area has been discontinued. The storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly shear and drier air, which is causing its lopsided appearance in satellite images and strong tilt in the aircraft data. The atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for strengthening while Humberto moves over the warm Gulf Stream waters. These environmental parameters support intensification, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Key Messages: 1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North Carolina early next week continues to diminish. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 25.6N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 02:53:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 03:23:18 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 140247 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) X(20) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) X(20) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 3(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 8(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140247 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 75.2W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Humberto is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Humberto was located near 25.6, -75.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 02:42:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 03:29:50 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core. There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened quite that much at this point. It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko, and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short term, the initial position may actually be the main source of uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered. Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period. Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air, and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is near HCCA throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 2 9(11) 17(28) 13(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 10(54) 1(55) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.3W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest or west motion at a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be at or near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -116.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will linger across northern Ohio into extreme northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Isolated damaging winds may be noted for the next few hours. ...OH Valley... Large-scale height falls are spreading east across ON/QC ahead of a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough. Southern influence of this trough is affecting the international border region from northern OH into upstate NY. Convection that developed ahead of the front over southeastern lower MI/western OH has shifted downstream, utilizing an air mass that is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. 00z sounding from ILN supports this along with deep-layer shear of roughly 30kt. Ongoing activity will soon shift east of instability corridor, and loss of daytime heating should also serve to negatively influence convective updrafts. For these reasons will only maintain 5% severe probs for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2019 Read more

WW 0652 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MIE TO 15 NNE TOL TO 10 SSE DTW TO 60 ESE MTC. ..DEAN..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-043-063-077-095-123-143-147-173-175-132340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE HANCOCK HURON LUCAS OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-132340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER Read more

WW 652 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH 131845Z - 140100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Southeast Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing from northeast Indiana to southeast Lower Michigan should spread east-northeast through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Scattered damaging winds are the main threat, but a tornado or two will also be possible across southeast Lower Michigan through late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH to 85 miles north northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... FOR NORTHERN OH...EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Areas affected...Northern OH...Extreme east-central IN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652... Valid 132316Z - 140045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will remain possible this evening, with a gradual weakening trend expected with time. DISCUSSION...A general weakening trend has been noticed recently the longer-lived convective cluster across north-central OH, with some redevelopment noted further west from east-central IN into northwest OH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt may support some organization with the strongest cells, with some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or marginally severe hail. However, as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes lifts away from the region and MLCINH increases this evening, a gradual decrease in the severe thunderstorm threat is expected with time, and downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Dean/Goss.. 09/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40158536 40768468 41078436 41418406 42038336 42018274 41898183 41478160 40918214 40608257 40408315 40258383 40068453 40158536 Read more