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Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 060951 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 600 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...EYEWALL OF DORIAN MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... An observation in Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h). A Weatherflow station at North River, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Ocracoke, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 76.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 6:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 the center of Dorian was located near 34.8, -76.2 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:46:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected motion in third paragraph. This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt. Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the global models beyond the 48-hour period. The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:15:53 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models are in good agreement on Monday with a shortwave trough and an associated cold front over the northern Plains. The models suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front in parts of Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas on Monday afternoon. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear may be enough for an isolated severe threat. On Tuesday, the models develop an upper-level trough in the western U.S. as a shortwave ridge moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along a front that is forecast to be from northern parts of the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes region. The models remain in reasonable agreement on Wednesday with an upper-level trough over the western states and southwest mid-level flow in the Great Plains. Thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains where the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET show a surface low and a moist airmass. An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of Nebraska and South Dakota in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, model solutions are somewhat in agreement concerning an upper-level trough that is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a moist and unstable airmass located across the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Thursday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. The potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast to shift into the Great Lakes on Friday as a cold front moves southeastward across the central U.S. Although a conditional severe threat will be possible throughout the day 4 to 8 period across parts of the central and northern U.S, predictability is too low to outlook a threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models are in good agreement on Monday with a shortwave trough and an associated cold front over the northern Plains. The models suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front in parts of Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas on Monday afternoon. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear may be enough for an isolated severe threat. On Tuesday, the models develop an upper-level trough in the western U.S. as a shortwave ridge moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along a front that is forecast to be from northern parts of the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes region. The models remain in reasonable agreement on Wednesday with an upper-level trough over the western states and southwest mid-level flow in the Great Plains. Thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains where the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET show a surface low and a moist airmass. An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of Nebraska and South Dakota in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, model solutions are somewhat in agreement concerning an upper-level trough that is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a moist and unstable airmass located across the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Thursday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. The potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast to shift into the Great Lakes on Friday as a cold front moves southeastward across the central U.S. Although a conditional severe threat will be possible throughout the day 4 to 8 period across parts of the central and northern U.S, predictability is too low to outlook a threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models are in good agreement on Monday with a shortwave trough and an associated cold front over the northern Plains. The models suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front in parts of Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas on Monday afternoon. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear may be enough for an isolated severe threat. On Tuesday, the models develop an upper-level trough in the western U.S. as a shortwave ridge moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along a front that is forecast to be from northern parts of the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes region. The models remain in reasonable agreement on Wednesday with an upper-level trough over the western states and southwest mid-level flow in the Great Plains. Thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains where the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET show a surface low and a moist airmass. An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of Nebraska and South Dakota in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, model solutions are somewhat in agreement concerning an upper-level trough that is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a moist and unstable airmass located across the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys Thursday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. The potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast to shift into the Great Lakes on Friday as a cold front moves southeastward across the central U.S. Although a conditional severe threat will be possible throughout the day 4 to 8 period across parts of the central and northern U.S, predictability is too low to outlook a threat area at this time. Read more

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060852 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected direction to Cape Lookout ...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet. The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Fundy National Park to Shediac. * Francois to Boat Harbour. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday. Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches. Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches. New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 7 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 608 WTPZ31 KNHC 060851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.7 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin later tonight or Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 22.4, -122.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 08:52:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:31:37 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060850 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Poorly defined Gabrielle has not produced any organized deep convection since Thursday morning, and what remains of the showers and thunderstorms, is displaced nearly 200 miles north of the elongated surface circulation. Consequently, Gabrielle can no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone and has degenerated into a 35 kt post-tropical cyclone. Statistical-dynamical models, as well as the large-scale guidance, show that strong shear, along with mid-tropospheric dry air intrusion, should continue to inhibit convective development during the next 24 h or so, and cause further weakening into a remnant low. Around mid-period, the shear is forecast to decrease and the upper wind pattern becomes more diffluent. Additionally, Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will be traversing significantly warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to redevelop organized deep convection, and more than likely, re-strengthen. In fact, some of the intensity guidance shows Gabrielle becoming a hurricane in 4 days before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the HFIP HCCA, and the deterministic guidance beyond day 3. The initial motion is estimated to be an accelerating northwestward motion, or 315/10 kt. The global and regional models are in rather good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours, before recurving northward and then northeastward early next week in response to an approaching major shortwave mid-latitude trough from the northwest. The official forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one, and is very close to the TVCA simple multi-model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 25.5N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 060849 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060849 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 37.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 37.6W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 37.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north are forecast to occur by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Thereafter, slow strengthening is expected to occur over the weekend, and the remnants of Gabrielle is forecast to regenerate into a tropical cyclone at that time. Post-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over 1000 miles southwest of the Azores, is expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward at 17 mph over the open Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on Post-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 6 the center of Gabrielle was located near 25.5, -37.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 060847 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 25(55) X(55) X(55) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 53(53) 24(77) X(77) X(77) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) X(31) X(31) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 75(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 73(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 11(11) 39(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 74(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 53(53) 13(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 19(19) 12(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLIP NY 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 61 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FAYETTEVILLE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI