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No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 18 14:06:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 18 14:06:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are expected over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Following the departure of the strong subsynoptic trough from the Northeast, nearly zonal mid/upper-level flow is expected for most of the period over the central/eastern CONUS. Positively tilted mean troughing is expected to develop by the end of the period, over the north-central through southwestern CONUS. This process will be related to partial phasing of these northern and southern stream perturbations, respectively: 1. A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture- channel imagery over the northernmost reaches of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This feature should move southeastward and amplify, reaching a position from near James Bay to Lake Superior, northern MN, ND, and eastern MT, by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A broad, but not particularly strong, perturbation initially over southern parts of NV/CA and southwestward over Pacific waters west of northern Baja. This feature should move eastward to the southern High Plains by 12Z, aiding in low-level warm advection ahead of the cold front described below. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over the ND/MB line, near the International Peace Garden, related to the northern-stream mid/upper trough. A warm front was drawn southeastward to Lake Michigan, with a cold front arching across southwestern ND and southeastern/south-central to northwestern MT. The cyclone should deepen and move eastward to lake Superior by 00Z, with cold front reaching southeastern MN, south-central NE and eastern CO. By 12Z, the cold front should extend across southeastern Lower MI, southern IL, the Ozarks, southwestern OK, and east-central NM. A separate, weaker low initially drawn near AMA will move east- southeastward down the Red River Valley -- ahead of the southern- stream perturbation -- and should be overtaken by the cold front within a couple hours of the end of the period. Given the continental/polar air mass still present over the Gulf and central/ eastern CONUS following the last major cold front, return-flow marine modification ahead of the newer cold front will be too limited to yield enough moisture/instability for thunderstorms, until the day-2 period. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/18/2022 Read more

On the evening of January 14, 2022, Martin Fire started approximately 18 miles east of the town of Olney. Local VFDs responded to assist.  Fire was estimated to be 800 acres. Local responders were able to stop forward progression but still had some backing fire in rough terrain.State resource from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested to assist due to rocky terrain and heavy post oak presence. TAMFS resources along with Loving VFD (station 2) formed a unified

 The Mill Creek Fire started in Shackelford County off of HWY 283 approximately 10 miles North of Albany. High winds are causing extreme fire activity and aviation resources are being used to assist with slowing the rate of spread. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with local responders and

 The Plum Bluff Fire started around 7:00 PM in Fisher County off of FM 57 approximately 10 miles North of the town of Sweetwater. Due to the high winds the fire is very active with a high rate of spread. The fire is currently burning in mixed grass and heavy brush. TAMFS is in unified command with local and state

On January 14, 2022 aproximately 8:00PM, Douglas fire started in the town of Electra. There were 15 structures threatned but no evacuation is needed at this time. Local resources from Kamay Volunteer Fire Department and State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) responded to assist. TAMFS and Electra Volunteer Fire Department are working in unified

 Crews completed ignitions on 57 acres today, Jan.

01-13-22 Update:  Crews have completed 200 acres on the Pacheco Canyon prescribed pile burn this week.  Due to ventilation rates, fire managers decided not to burn today. The plan is to continue ignitions on the Pacheco Canyon piles tomorrow and, if necessary, into Saturday if conditions are favorable. On Wednesday, the BIA and Pueblo of Tesuque implemented the 111-acre Vigil Grant prescribed pile burn near the Pacheco Canyon treatment

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 13 13:34:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 13 13:34:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the mainland U.S. today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough and associated speed max -- now embedded in northwest flow over portions of IA -- will move southeastward and strengthen considerably today, reaching portions of AL/GA by 00Z. The perturbation should continue intensifying as it pivots offshore from northern FL, GA and SC overnight, while inducing surface cyclogenesis over Atlantic waters well to the east. Low-level mass response will intensify the northwesterly to westerly gradient flow and negative theta-e advection over FL and adjacent waters, causing substantial offshore displacement of favorable buoyancy and lift. In the meantime, convection crossing the lower/ middle Keys may produce sporadic flashes, with a small portion of the roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evident in the morning KEY sounding extending into favorable icing layers for lightning. Thunder also will be possible over waters near the southeastern FL coastline, and a few flashes may occur just east of the NC Outer Banks as well. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/13/2022 Read more

Carter County Commissioners implemented a burn ban on Dec. 20 and extended it through Jan. 17. The ban made it unlawful for a person "to set fire to any forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands or to build a campfire, bonfire, burn or ignite fireworks, or to burn trash or other materials that may cause a forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands fire." Ardmoreite.com (Okla.), Jan 7, 2022

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration due to exceptional drought posing a threat of imminent disaster in Andrews, Baylor, Borden, Brewster, Cameron, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Culberson, Dallam, Dawson, Deaf Smith, Dimmit, Fisher, Foard, Gray, Hansford, Hardeman, Hartley, Haskell, Hemphill, Hidalgo, Howard, Hutchinson, Jones, Knox, Lamar, Martin, Maverick, Midland, Moore, Motley, Ochiltree, Oldham, Pecos, Potter, Presidio, Randall, Roberts, Scurry, Sherman, Stonewall, Terrell, Throckmorton, Upton, Ward, Wheeler, Wichita, Wilbarger, and Winkler counties. Office of the Governor - Greg Abbott (Texas), Jan 6, 2022

With Arizona’s water supply from the Colorado River being reduced due to the declared water shortage, residents of Scottsdale are urged to limit water use by at least 5%. City officials have also found ways for the city to conserve water. In recent years, areas of turf and non-recreational grass were converted to xeriscape. Low flow toilets were another way to conserve water. FOX 10 (Phoenix, Ariz.), Jan 11, 2022

Blue Mesa Reservoir was more than 80 feet below full pool in late 2021 after its water was released downstream for Lake Powell. The water receded into its old river channel on the eastern edges, exposing foundations from the town of Iola and Stevens Ranch. Gunnison Country Times (Colo.), Jan 12, 2022

Five of New Mexico’s eight ski resorts have partially opened as drought limits the amount of snow available, but three resorts—Ski Apache, Pajarito Mountain and Sandia Peak—have not yet opened for the season. KRQE (Albuquerque, N.M.), Jan 12, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of southeastern Florida and over the Keys. Very similar to yesterday, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight along the coast of southeast FL and the Keys - mainly offshore. Weak shear will continue to minimize the risk of severe storms. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity during this period. ..Hart.. 01/12/2022 Read more