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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of southeastern Florida and over the Keys. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A broad mid/upper-level cyclone with binary vorticity maxima will pivot over the Hudson Bay/northern QC region through the period, anchoring a large-scale trough extending southward to the Gulf. This trough will amplify through the period as a series of shortwaves pass through northwesterly to cyclonic flow from the central to eastern CONUS. One of the shortwave troughs -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over east TX -- should pivot across the northern Gulf Coast region today, reaching parts of central/northern FL overnight. As the mid/upper trough approaches, low-level mass response will back flow from a dominant easterly to northerly component. As this occurs, the primary convergence zone aiding the bulk of convective potential will shift away from a position north of a decaying frontal zone, near the mainland coast and Keys, where it will be located much of today. Until then, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible amidst marginal instability, with MLCAPE around 500-800 J/kg over mainland coastal areas, slightly higher in the Keys, and up to 1500 J/kg offshore over the optimal thermal fluxes of the Gulf Stream. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/12/2022 Read more

Crews are implementing day 2 of the Gallinas Canyon prescribed pile burn today, Jan.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 11 13:51:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 11 13:51:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunder will be possible today along immediate coastal areas of southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mean trough will persist in mid/upper levels over the eastern CONUS, with amplifying ridging over the West Coast States. A weak, small, initially cut-off cyclone over southeastern NM and far west TX will move eastward and rejoin the prevailing westerlies as a deamplifying open wave. reaching the Sabine River vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. With relatively dry and stable low-level conditions, this feature should yield only midlevel convection to its east over central/southeast TX and southwestern LA, with lightning potential too isolated and low for a general thunder area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida, to the central Gulf. This front should weaken as it drifts southward. A nearly collocated surface trough, confluence/convergence zone and moist axis extended northward between south FL and the Bahamas, which should continue to focus isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over/near the Gulf Stream. Though lapse rates will be modest overall, ocean-air thermal/moisture fluxes over the Gulf Stream and diurnal heating inland should boost MLCAPE into the 500-800 J/kg range along the immediate coastal area south of FLL across Biscayne Bay to Elliott Key and Key Largo. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be possible offshore, based on modified MFL RAOB and model soundings. Though theta-e and low-level lift will continue to be stronger over open water, where the bulk of convection should remain, a few thunderstorms may reach land before dissipating. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/11/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 10 12:47:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 10 12:47:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida, mainly this afternoon/evening. ...FL mainly this afternoon/evening... In the wake of deep midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface cold front will continue to move southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and FL peninsula through tonight. Daytime heating across central/south FL and a diffuse pre-frontal trough will help focus the development of a few thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon/evening across southeast FL where there may be some local sea breeze enhancement. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak vertical shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ...Elsewhere through tonight... A lake-effect snow band will persist through the afternoon off Lake Ontario. Shallow buoyancy is expected within this band, but the entire profile will be colder than -5 to -6 C, which suggests that lightning production will be sparse (if at all). Farther east, any ocean-effect convection deep enough to produce lightning flashes should remain well off the southeast New England coast tonight. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/10/2022 Read more

MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Massachusetts and Coastal Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071459Z - 071900Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue across eastern Massachusetts for the next 1-2 hours before spreading northward across coastal Maine later this morning. Snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show an organized snow band over eastern MA that has persisted for the past several hours. Under this band, several surface obs are reporting visibility down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of heavy snowfall rates amid weak winds. Recent LSRs from the region lend credence to these observations with heavy snow accumulations up to 12 inches reported. Strong synoptic ascent within the left-exit region of a 100+ knot upper-level jet is expected to linger over coastal New England over the next few hours as the upper-level shortwave trough continues to shift northeast. Latest RAP analyses reveal a tight baroclinic zone between 850-700 mb just off the MA coast with vigorous warm air advection and frontogenetical ascent organizing mesoscale lift. The placement and evolution of the baroclinic zone, along with trajectories from recent guidance, suggest the stronger frontogenetical forcing will shift offshore for much of the day in the coming hours. However, warm air advection through the 850-700 mb layer will likely increase later this morning as winds strengthen in response to the deepening low. This warm advection regime should be rather broad and encompass coastal ME. Coupled with strong synoptic ascent, this may support heavy snow potential with snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour later this morning and into the early afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/07/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 41567105 42307101 43177081 43767018 44206930 44416870 44416821 44236798 43916842 43686904 43246979 42667000 42196997 41726976 41216998 41217063 41267096 41567105 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 7 15:01:02 UTC 2022.

 Nacogdoches 1802 is now named the Beaver Pond fire, estimated at 350 acres and 20% containment as of 23:00. All three dozers are working together, making good progress. The fire activity has moderated. Operations normal no unmet needs. Cause of ignition is currently under

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida today into early tonight, and mainly tonight along the Texas coast. ...Synopsis... Within the primary polar jet stream, one shortwave trough and an associated deepening cyclone will move off the New England coast during the day, while a couple of upstream troughs progress inland over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin. The majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies is under the influence of a continental polar air mass, with the only exceptions being across south FL today and along the TX coast overnight. After morning convection dissipates near the FL Keys, a surface cold front moving southward across central into south FL may help focus isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon through early tonight near the southeast FL coast. Otherwise, moisture return will resume across the TX coast by tonight, with sufficient moistening just above the surface to support an isolated thunderstorm threat overnight within a weak warm advection regime. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/07/2022 Read more

Water authorities from Arizona, Nevada and California signed the 500+ Plan on Dec. 15, voluntarily offering to reduce the share of water to be taken from the Colorado River to keep Lake Mead fuller. The plan is that the states will take 500,000 acre-feet less in 2022 and 2023, depending on water usage and conservation in the area, with the aim of averting mandatory cuts in the near future. States must also make a financial investment amounting to $40 million from Arizona, and $20 million each from Nevada, California and the Central Arizona Project, which operates a canal system that delivers Colorado River water in Arizona. The federal government would match the funding, for a total of $200 million. Associated Press News (New York), Dec 14, 2021 Phoenix is voluntarily contributing water as part of a regional “500+ Plan” to support Lake Mead and postpone more water shortages. The plan has not yet been finalized, but Arizona, Nevada and California will contribute water and funds over the next two years. Associated Press News (New York), Jan 7, 2022

Water rates for Los Angeles’ heaviest water users rose up to $3.60 per 748 gallons of water, effective Jan. 1. the Los Angeles Department Board of Water and Power Commissioners approved the rate changes in September 2021 to cover increasing water supply costs from customers who use a lot of water. Spectrum News 1 (El Segundo, Calif.), Jan 5, 2022

Precipitation helped firefighters increase the containment of the estimated 1,000-acre Lost Cove Fire to 80%. Watauga Democrat (Boone, N.C.), Jan. 5, 2022